Pegasus World Cup fair odds: Who to bet with Disco Time
The Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup has steadily provided two things over its nine-year history: world-class performances and popular outcomes.
Horses of the year Arrogate, Gun Runner and Knicks Go are among its winners, as are Breeders' Cup winners White Abarrio and City of Light. It is an appropriate tie-in that this year's Pegasus is a win-and-you're-in race for this year's Breeders' Cup Classic on Oct. 31 at Keeneland.
Click here for Gulfstream Park entries and results.
The popular outcomes are related to the first or second choice winning eight of the nine Pegasuses to date, with favorites going 9: 5-1-1. The lone off-the-board finishes by chalk were Higher Power in 2020 and Cyberknife in 2023.
That's a good and bad news situation for fans of Disco Time. The 8-5 morning line favorite is likely to run to his odds but at an underlaid price.
Don't get me wrong, Juddmonte's homebred colt is the one to beat given his undefeated record and a pair of stakes wins off a layoff by a combined 15 1/4 lengths. But this will be the Not This Time colt's first start against older horses and first beyond 1 1/16 miles. I'm willing to say he can do it, but betting on it at 8-5 gives me pause.
The Harlan's Holiday (G3) is the Pegasus prep I'm keying on for an alternative. Winner Skippylongstocking, runner-up Poster and third-place Catalytic (if he draws in) all are likely overlays against this competitive field. The race came back fast on Ragozin, and the top two in particular have a chance to move forward to better numbers in this spot.
Full Serrano is the only other horse I see as potential value against my fair odds. Lightly raced in 2025 after winning the 2024 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, Full Serrano had Classic aspirations when testing the nine-furlong waters in the Goodwood Stakes (G1). That did not work out, but Gulfstream is kinder to horses stretching out than Santa Anita is. He's dangerous here with the right trip, but demanding the right price is essential.
As much as I like Disco Time and Skippylongstocking, I dislike their uncoupled stablemates Tappan Street and White Abarrio from the barns of Brad Cox and Saffie Joseph Jr., respectively.
Tappan Street is making his second start off a layoff, preceded by being the last horse to beat eventual horse of the year Sovereignty at this track and distance. His price will be too short to bet on the needed development and move forward after a just OK return.
White Abarrio won this race last year, but a defense will require doing so without a prep after being scratched at the gate of last year's Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. That lack of prep makes him tough to like. I doubt he will be the second choice, but even drifting from the morning line won't make him worth a bet.
The bet I'm most interested in making is an exacta box with Disco Time, Full Serrano, Poster and Skippylongstocking with a trifecta box keying on Disco Time and using the other three.