Pegasus fair odds: Do outside posts hurt value potential?

When we first looked at the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational, the biggest questions were who would compose the field of 12 and what that would mean for the pace of the $3 million race.

An expected dozen entered for Saturday at Gulfstream Park, and although most of the field sports a forward style, it is the only Grade 1 winner in the field, 2023 Preakness hero National Treasure, who has the "E" designation from Brisnet. 

It is certainly possible that several others can engage National Treasure early, but I've seen this movie before from Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, and this is a group jockey Flavien Prat can put away on the front end.

But as we preach constantly, the most likely winner does not always mean value and is therefore not always worth a bet. I have National Treasure at 9-2 on my fair odds and given his 9-5 morning line, it's tough to see how he's a play against this group.

The same holds for Clark (G2) runner-up First Mission, whom I have at 5-1 vs. the morning line of 7-2. I like National Treasure's chances to go gate to wire marginally better than I do First Mission having to run him down while outrunning others late. 

If not for post 12, I'd have Skippylongstocking as my most likely winner. As is, 6-1 might be playable given the 8-1 morning line. I'm encouraged by jockey Tyler Gaffalione having the mount, as he knows this track well. It will have to be a clever trip to win from the outside post going nine furlongs there.

No. 2 O'Connor also is 8-1 on the morning line, but I have him as slightly less likely than Skippylongstocking. The trip probably will be better from post 2, but I think Skippylongstocking is the better horse.

No. 6 Senor Buscador is a must-use given the 20-1 morning line. I think he wins twice as often as that would indicate, so he has to be in the mix. And if he really is 20-1, which is the longest price on the morning line along with three others, then he is my key underneath as well. That lets me fold in horses such as National Treasure and First Mission even at potentially underlaid win prices. 

I definitely want to get live to O'Connor, Senor Buscador and Skippylongstocking in the multi-race wagers. I'm a little surprised to see no. 9 Grand Aspen at 8-1 on the morning line. I have him at 12-1 fair odds and thought that was actionable, so I'm hoping his price drifts because I'd like to get him in the mix.