Fair odds: Pace will make the race in Pegasus World Cup

With the list of Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup invitees including gate-to-wire threats such as National Treasure, Newgrange and Saudi Crown, the actual starters in the $3 million race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 27 will have a big role in determining the chances of everyone else.

Both National Treasure and Saudi Crown are Grade 1 winners against their generation but faltered in the Breeders' Cup against older horses, with the former just missing against likely champion Cody's Wish in the Dirt Mile and the latter not much of a factor in the Classic at 1 1/4 miles.

They'll meet in the middle, distance-wise, in the 1 1/8-mile Pegasus, and they would not be the only top contenders who like to be on or near the pace.

Hoist the Gold won the Cigar Mile (G2) gate to wire last out. First Mission and Grand Aspen, runners up in graded stakes last out, both typically track the pace. And Skippylongstocking, third in the Dirt Mile, sits close too.

All seven of those make up more than half the invitees. If all of them show up, then O'Connor, Skippylongstocking's Saffie Joseph-trained stablemate who ran down Grand Aspen in the Harlan's Holiday (G3), and Señor Buscador, who could not get to Hoist the Gold in the Cigar Mile, both improve their chances.

Current fair odds reflect the chances of all current invitees still under consideration for the race, with the first 11 horses on the main invite list and the next eight on the "reserve" list. At least one of those will receive an invitation to the main body of the field because trainer John Sadler said Subsanador would stay in California for his next race.