Pegasus World Cup: Early odds and analysis

With the Grade 1, $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational coming up on Jan. 28 at Gulfstream Park, now is a good time to take an early look at the probables list and make a hypothetical morning line. At this point, the race might lack superstars, but it does give the feeling of an interesting betting race.

The current field is based on the possibles list found on the Horse Racing Nation Stakes Tracker.

1. White Abarrio 6-1 (Race Day – Saffie Joseph Jr./TBA – 10: 4-1-2 - $1,062,550) Although White Abarrio came up slightly short in the Cigar Mile when he ran third, he did perform well and gave the impression of enjoying the cutback. Since they run the Pegasus World Cup on a course where White Abarrio remains undefeated, it is understandable if the connections want to take a shot at the big one. He can win at nine furlongs, as shown in the Florida Derby (G1) in March. Win contender.

2. Super Corinto 30-1 (Super Saver – Amador Sanchez/TBA – 8: 5-2-0- $141,598) In his two Gulfstream races, Super Corinto lost a local optional claiming race by half a length to Noble Drama on Nov. 12 and won a separate optional claiming race on Dec. 8 by half a length over Clapton. In April, Super Corinto won the Gran Premio Hipodromo Chile (G1), but those high-level group stakes races are probably the equivalent of allowance-level or Grade 3 races here. He seems overmatched. Toss.

3. Slow Down Andy 10-1 (Nyquist – Doug O’Neill/TBA – 10: 4-3-2 - $909,100) Since his disappointing sixth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) earlier in the year against a strong field, Slow Down Andy has slowly been improving. He won the Sunland Derby (G3) after surviving a vicious pace duel. Then after runner-up finishes in the Los Alamitos Derby and Real Good Deal Stakes, Slow Down Andy won the Del Mar Derby (G2) on turf to prove himself on multiple surfaces. The third-place finishes in the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile only add to the idea he made a step forward from the spring version of him. Perhaps another big check is in store if the connections choose to go in this spot. Use underneath.

4. Skippylongstocking 15-1 (Exaggerator – Saffie Joseph Jr./TBA – 13: 3-1-3 - $687,600) This son of Exaggerator knows how to hit the board in big races, as his third-place finishes in the Wood Memorial (G2) and Belmont Stakes show. After the Belmont, Skippylongstocking took the West Virginia Derby (G3), but the win came over slop. Remember, his sire Exaggerator became known as a mud or slop specialist throughout his career. Skippylongstocking came crashing back down with a ninth-place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). If it rains on Pegasus Day, then move up this closer. But on fast dirt, he can finish only in the bottom slots. Use underneath.

5. Simplification 12-1 (Not This Time – Antonio Sano/TBA – 12: 3-1-3 - $779,950) The local Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner fell into a drought with six straight losses. To Simplification’s credit, his third in the Florida Derby (G1) and fourth in the Kentucky Derby both were good efforts. After a disappointing Preakness, Simplification then ran a decent third in the West Virginia Derby (G3). But his more recent seventh-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile seems like another disappointing effort, even if it was the Breeders’ Cup. He does return to his home course in the Pegasus and might bounce back off the bad effort. Use underneath. 

6. Proxy 9-2 (Tapit – Michael Stidham/TBA – 13: 4-5-2 - $971,220) Not only did Proxy pick up his first graded-stakes win in the Clark Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs, he also won his first Grade 1. Before that win, Proxy gave the impression of a closer who always wound up second or third. Earlier in the year, he ran second in both the New Orleans Classic (G2) at Fair Grounds and Blame Stakes at Churchill Downs. He also ran third in the Ben Ali (G3) at Keeneland and Stephen Foster (G2) at Churchill Downs. Even though Proxy won the Clark, the right way to use him as a bettor still feels like to throw him into the bottom slots until Proxy proves he can win on a regular basis. Use underneath.

7. Pappacap 30-1 (Gun Runner – Mark Casse/TBA – 11: 2-4-1 - $833,000) Does this Gun Runner colt want to run nine furlongs? In February, Pappacap settled into a perfect striking position before fading badly in the stretch. After that race, the connections opted to shorten Pappacap up and he rewarded them with runner-up finishes in the Pat Day Mile (G2) and Woody Stephen (G1). If Pappacap ends up in the Pegasus, he will contest the pace and fold on the far turn. Toss.

8. O’Connor 15-1 (Boboman – Saffie Joseph Jr./TBA – 19: 10-5-2 - $218,269) After starting his career in Chile, O’Connor made his debut in North America with a six-length win in a local Oct. 16 optional claiming race. The dominant win is in contrast to Super Corinto, who lost an optional claimer by a half-length and then won another one by a half-length. Yet, Super Corinto beat O’Connor in the Gran Premio Hipodromo Chile (G1) in April. Perhaps O’Connor benefitted from landing in the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn while Super Corinto ended up with Amador Sanchez. For what it is worth, O’Connor posted a 115 on TimeformUS for his Gulfstream win, while Super Corinto shows the same TimeformUS figure for his Dec. 8 win. Forget about the speed figures. O’Connor has some value to him. Live long shot.

9. Jesus’ Team 50-1 (Tapiture – Jose D’Angelo/TBA – 19: 3-5-3 - $1,341,410) Something went wrong with this former runner-up in the 2021 Pegasus World Cup. In his final start last year, Jesus’ Team ran a dismal eighth in the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga. He then went on the shelf before returning with a ninth-place finish in a local optional claiming race on Nov. 12 and a DNF on Dec. 8. If Jesus’ Team still receives an invitation based on his credible 2021 effort, then he might finish last once more. Toss.

10. Defunded 4-1 (Dialed In – Bob Baffert/TBA – 13: 5-3-1 - $608,100): Defunded woke up for trainer Bob Baffert by taking the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita and Native Diver Stakes (G3) at Del Mar. He won the former race by setting the pace, but he also can press the leader as shown in the latter win. Forget about his bad efforts between those races in the San Diego Handicap (G2) and Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2). The connections wisely chose to skip the Breeders’ Cup Classic as well, presumably to keep the good form running. Defunded posted a 125 on TimeformUS for the Native Diver win and a 123 for his winning effort in the Awesome Again. If Defunded breaks well and finds himself setting the pace or pressing the leader, it might become hard to run him down. Win contender. 

11. Cyberknife, 7-2 (Gun Runner – Brad Cox/TBA – 12: 5-4-1 - $2,087,520) The connections for Cyberknife wisely chose the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile rather than get crushed by Flightline in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Cyberknife came up just a bit short though and lost by a head to the fan favorite Cody’s Wish. Earlier in the year, Cyberknife won the Arkansas Derby (G1) over the eventual Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath in third. During the summer, Cyberknife also defeated Taiba in the Haskell Stakes (G1) before that foe won the Pennsylvania Derby with Cyberknife in third. In terms of overall ability, this is probably the best horse in the field. But Cyberknife did not break well in the Pennsylvania Derby, and whether he breaks sharp might decide his chances in the 12-horse Pegasus World Cup field. Win contender.

12. Art Collector, 12-1 (Bernardini – William Mott/TBA – 20: 10-1-0 - $2,332,490) After returning in sharp form with wins in the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga and Charles Town Classic (G2), Art Collector cooled off with a fifth-place finish in the Lukas Classic (G2). Perhaps he became exposed in the Lukas Classic. He had no excuse after setting a moderate pace with Hot Rod Charlie tracking him. With that said, this is not the toughest edition of the Pegasus World Cup. If Art Collector breaks well and finds himself in the early pace mix, then maybe he can fight off Cyberknife and Defunded for the win. If it rains on the Pegasus card, it might help the chances of this Bernardini horse even more. But in this early Pegasus ranking, he is underneath horses such as Defunded and Cyberknife. Use underneath.

Also eligible:

13. Brooklyn Strong, n/a (Wicked Strong – Victor Barboza Jr./TBA – 14: 3-0-5 - $294,580): Why is this horse listed as a possibility? Only five starts ago in June, Brooklyn Strong ran third in a local $35k claiming race. He then ran third in the Saginaw Stakes at Belmont and Evan Shipman Stakes at Saratoga, but those efforts came against New York-breds. As for his third in the Greenwood Cup (G3), that race came at the marathon distance, and he lost by nine lengths in the end. He does not belong in the Pegasus World Cup, even if this is not the strongest edition. Toss.

Conclusion

The three most likely winners are White Abarrio, Defunded and Cyberknife. O’Connor gets honorable mention as a possible long-shot play.

If pressed to pick one horse right now, then O’Connor would make an interesting win and place bet if he ends up at double-digit odds. Odds and value aside though, Cyberknife merits the most respect based the horses he has won against this year.