Pegasus Turf fair odds: Warm Heart ensures value elsewhere

Warm Heart puts the "world" in Pegasus World Cup Turf, as the well-traveled filly for trainer Aidan O'Brien makes her seasonal debut on Saturday in Gulfstream Park's richest turf race after a third-place finish in the Hong Kong Vase and a second-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. 

Those international efforts followed a pair of Group 1 wins in England and France, and the Pegasus brings her to her 10th racetrack in 11 career starts. The Breeders' Cup was her first test against older females and the Vase her first against males.

All that is to say she has the class and credentials to take a lot of money in an American turf race. And although I certainly will not be shocked if she wins, I just can't envision her offering much value. The bottom line for me on her is that her Ragozin Sheet numbers do not merit favoritism. In other words, I do not see her as the most likely winner.

This is where things get tricky, though, because no. 3 Integration is the most likely winner. Normally, opposing an international chalk in an American turf race is enough to go with the horse you like best as a strong single, but Integration could be an underlay as well.

At his 3-1 morning line, Integration would offer fair value, but I fear both he and Warm Heart will be underlaid. Integration is the fastest horse, though, and with only three career starts likely has upside for hall of fame trainer Shug McGaughey, who is known for developing horses. 

From a multi-race wager standpoint, I'll let the 3-1 morning line do the talking and take a stand with him knowing that plenty of other bettors will lean on Warm Heart or use both or spread. 

Given my fair odds, though, no. 10 Shirl's Speight and no. 12 Catnip need to be in the mix in all wagers as well. They are both 15-1 on the morning line and 7-1 and 8-1 on my fair odds, respectively. Shirl's Speight had some buzz to him Breeders' Cup week but was mostly flat in the Mile. Still, his best is good enough, and Luis Saez getting back on board is intriguing. And speaking of jockey changes, who's complaining about Frankie Dettori aboard Catnip at a nice number?

I think vertically, it is worth gambling that Warm Heart does not finish in the top two. If Integration is underlaid as well, then maybe there's a chance to really go for a nice exacta among the others.