Pegasus Turf fair odds: This is the favorite to play against

As difficult as it is to identify value in the Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf days out, there is hope that solving that puzzle will pay dividends later in the all-stakes Pick 4 sequence because there is a vulnerable favorite in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Nations Pride is a certain favorite in the $1 million race, but I do not trust him at the likely price. He did very little running in the Bahrain International Trophy Stakes (G2), his only start in 5 1/2 months.

Yes, American bettors are likely to gravitate toward his North American wins in the Arlington Million (G1) last year at Colonial Downs and the Canadian International (G1) in 2023 at Woodbine, but even those races are just as good as what most are capable of here. So it is not as if his best is clearly best. The other thing is it seems as though he prefers a route of ground, and 1 1/8 miles might be a little short for the Godolphin homebred.

Mi Hermano Ramon is the play after just missing against Johannes, who would have been one of the favorites here but did not enter. Mi Hermano Ramon is ideally drawn in post 3, as most of the speed in this race is to his inside. This will keep him engaged early. I will not like my chances if he is in the back half of the field going down the backside.

My next tier includes Win for the Money, Integration, Spirit of St. Louis and Fort Washington off the also-eligible list. I prefer Win for the Money and Fort Washington, thinking Integration and Spirit of St. Louis both will take more money given their connections and existing prestige. Win for the Money is lesser known and Fort Washington is off the AE list.

Additionally, Win for the Money sports the Frank Angst jockey angle with Dylan Davis returning off that solid third-place finish in the Fort Lauderdale (G2). Speaking of that race, you might have noticed that its winner, Major Dude, is not a favorite of mine here, and I greatly prefer the pair who finished behind him. Major Dude's win was a perfect trip, and maybe he repeats that here, but the figure earned in that race will not win this. Both Win for the Money and Fort Washington ran faster, according to Ragozin.

Mi Hermano Ramon will be my primary selection in this race. From a multi-race standpoint, I am open to using all five of the horses I mentioned positively here, so not Nations Price. But I think vertically is the better strategy because Nations Pride doesn't even have to hit the board.