Pegasus Turf fair odds: Panning for 'Gold' and other long shots

I generally subscribe to the "Grade 1 horses win Grade 1 races" cliche, but I am willing to buck it at the right price.

So it goes with the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, where 2024 Turf Classic Invitational Stakes (G1) winner Program Trading is the 5-2 morning-line favorite and an underlay at that price.

Click here for Gulfstream Park entries and results.

Last year's Arlington Million Stakes (G1) winner Fort Washington also figures to take money but is marooned on the outside, and his four-month-plus layoff is a concern for me against in-form horses.

The two I'm most interested in are Cugino, who I see as the most likely winner, and Beach Gold, who is 15-1 on the morning line and value at half that. Beach Gold tried the 1 1/8-mile distance of this race last out in the Fort Lauderdale (G3) and ran well off the two-and-a-half-month layoff when wide chasing Wolfie's Dynaghost and Cugino home.

I like the draw for Beach Gold, who will need to move forward here to win. But nine furlongs off the bench is a big ask, and assuming he got anything out of that race, he can move forward here at a generous price.

Jockey Flavien Prat sticks with the morning-line favorite for trainer Chad Brown, but no disappointment to get John Velazquez aboard Cugino, who could not get Wolfie's Dynaghost but held Beach Gold at bay despite giving that one three pounds. Still, at the expected price discrepancy I'll back Beach Gold with Cugino as my clear alternative.

Both Almendares and Chasing the Crown are 20-1 on the morning line, and my fair odds say either would be value at that price. Alamandares chased fast paces in Southern California, and aggressive tactics could keep him in the frame here. Chasing the Crown is third off the layoff and is interesting as an off-the-pace play in a race in which he finished third last year at 64-1 with deep-closing tactics.

Beach Gold is the horse I am most interested in betting to win. I'll also box the four horses I mentioned in an exacta and do a press keying Cugino with the other three.