Pedigree Insights: Gauging Justify, Reride at Derby distance
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The Kentucky Derby is such an exciting race because it asks contenders to do so many things they have never done before, chief among them to run 1 1/4 miles (10 furlongs) for the first time.
The old race trackers say any horse can run a mile and a quarter, but the trick is having the one who does it the fastest. Past performance, training patterns, the trainer's confidence and jockey's skill all play major roles in this, but a horse's pedigree can give us some clues as to whether he'll be among the first across the wire or the first to burn out on through the far turn.
Take for example maiden winner and buzzy Bob Baffert trainee Justify. The chestnut colt wowed fans with his dazzling speed in a 7-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita on Feb. 18. But can he carry that speed over the Derby distance?
Justify
(Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Verdict: Distance Challenged
Sire Scat Daddy comes from a line of precocious juveniles: sire, Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Johannesburg and grandsire Hennessy, a multiple graded stakes winner at 6 furlongs. Scat Daddy won the Champagne stakes at 2 over one mile. At 3, Scat Daddy won the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby over 9 furlongs, though it seems that was the limit of his distance capabilities. The chart comments on both of those efforts note that he was "just up" to win the Fountain of Youth and "fully extended" in the Florida Derby. In the Kentucky Derby, Scat Daddy ran his usual pressing-style race, but had nothing left late, finishing 18th.
The average winning distance of his sons and daughters is 7 furlongs, with some notable exceptions: Lady of Shamrock and Dacita, both Grade 1 winners on turf up to 1 1/4 miles. Scat Daddy can get routers, but it seems his best are on turf.
Justify's dam is Stage Magic, a daughter of 10-furlong Breeders' Cup Classic winner Ghostzapper. Stage Magic won three of her 12 starts, twice at 8 furlongs and once at 8.5 furlongs. She was graded-stakes placed at 8 furlongs, notably running third to eventual Filly & Mare Sprint champion, Groupie Doll, in the Gardenia (G3) at Ellis Park. Though this might appear to hint at stamina, the chart comments for her efforts over one mile include: "hung," "overtaken," "empty" and "weakened."
Stage Magic's dam, Magical Illusion (by Pulpit), won three races in a six-race career, also at distances up to 8.5 furlongs. She was stakes-placed at 1 1/4 miles in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) to champion Ashado. Her running line for that race shows that she broke in third place and held that position for the distance, not making up any real ground.
Based on his pedigree highlights, Justify will win a graded stakes. He has classy, Grade 1 speed on his sire's side, and his dam's side offers some stamina up to a mile. But this is the Kentucky Derby we're talking about, and these limitations, combined with his inexperience, will likely not add up to a victory on the first Saturday in May -- at least not at 10 furlongs.
Verdict: Distance Challenged
Why: The Swale Stakes (G3) winner is sired by Champion and Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Speightstown, whose average winning distance for progeny is 6 furlongs. His dam has some stamina influence in Medaglia d'Oro, but it so far hasn't translated to her get. Strike Power's half-brothers have one win between them at 6 furlongs.
Penalty
(Blame - Amazing Shoes, by Empire Maker) Verdict: Challenge Accepted
Why: Penalty is bred in the purple, sired by 10-furlong Breeders' Classic winner Blame, and his dam is a daughter of 12-furlong Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker. Last weekend's impressive Gulfstream Park maiden win on debut at 7 furlongs only scratches the surface of his capabilities.
Reride
(Candy Ride - Remit, by Tapit) Verdict: Challenge Accepted
Why: Reride, winner of the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland Park, should have no trouble stretching out beyond a mile. His sire, Candy Ride, won the Pacific Classic at 10 furlongs and also sired Breeders' Cup Classic winner Gun Runner and multiple Grade 1 winner Shared Belief. Reride's dam, Remit, was a stakes winner on dirt at 8 and 8.5 furlongs. She is sired by Tapit, who to date has gotten three 12-furlong Belmont Stakes winner.
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