Pat O'Brien fair odds: Outside horse could upset Baffert pair

Bob Baffert trains two speed balls for the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes on Saturday at Del Mar, Malibu Stakes winner Speed Boat Beach and the undefeated but untested-in-stakes Maymun.

Both come in off significant layoffs, with Speed Boat Beach unseen since Kentucky Derby week at Churchill Downs, his lone start since the Malibu (G1) in December at Santa Anita, and Maymun since he won his second career start in February 2024 at Santa Anita. 

Both appear capable of winning this at their best, and in Maymun's case especially there is no way of knowing what his best is off just two starts, though he did win both and at odds-on each time. Still, there is enough time off for both of them that I would prefer a bigger price.

Man O Rose has not raced since finishing second in the Cary Grant Stakes, which was his first start at this seven-furlong distance. But he is undefeated in two starts at 6 1/2 furlongs, and although this is a class test for the California-bred, I love the ability he has shown when sitting just off the pace. As an added bonus, even if things do not go well here, he might be playable next out, so watch for clues on his talent going forward.

Dr. Venkman certainly figures at his best, but I just do not think he is the same horse as last year. Bettors might be attracted to the change in jockey, rail, 4-for-4 in the exacta at the distance and 3-for-5 at Del Mar, but I think he is going in the wrong direction.

Stronghold is another layoff horse with back class. Antonio Fresu sticks with him after a nearly seven-month layoff since 10th of 11 in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). Class-wise he stacks up, but he would need a lifetime best performance to win this, and the price is too short to back that happening.