Fair odds: In Pat O’Brien, tossing 1 contender is the key

Thinking a horse has a 50 percent chance of winning and is still likely to be an underlay typically is not a recipe for wagering excitement. But the Grade 2, $250,000 Pat O’Brien Stakes on Saturday could offer some opportunity after all.

The Chosen Vron is an imposing presence riding his six-race win streak into Del Mar, where he has won 4 of 6 starts. But there is another big name in here who figures to be an even bigger underlay than the chalk.

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I am speaking of Señor Buscador, who is 5-1 on the morning line. I expect could go shorter given his celebrity as this year’s Saudi Cup (G1) winner who won a graded stakes last year at Del Mar. Now I think most people recognize this as a prep for the Mineshaft horse who has been off since March 30 when third in the Dubai World Cup (G1), but he will be over=bet in all wagers.

So what does that mean for betting on this race? Well, I doubt The Chosen Vron will be anywhere near our fair odds given his 3-5 morning line. I do think horses like Raging Torrent and Big City Lights could be worth playing with The Chosen Vron while tossing Señor Buscador.

Raging Torrent caught the eye of both the Super Screener and me, but I just can’t see him taking much more money than the 6-1 morning line indicates. I love the front-end speed and getting seven pounds from the favorite, though. He can stick around for a slice.