Pasco Stakes guide: Odds, analysis, PPs for Tampa feature
The $125,000 Pasco Stakes is the Saturday feature at Tampa Bay Downs as the 2024 Kentucky Derby trail unofficially begins at the Oldsmar, FL oval. The Pasco is slated to run at 4:32 p.m. EDT as the ninth of ten races on the card.
The seven-furlong dirt event does not award Kentucky Derby points, but it can springboard one or more of the seven 3-year-olds in the field to February's Sam F. Davis Stakes over this course or one of the many other Derby preps in the near future.
We've got you covered for the Pasco with speed figures, Super Screener picks and analysis, and more below.
You can also check out Horse Racing Nation's free past performances page, where you can download free PPs for the Pasco and more courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
Pasco Stakes – best speed figures
| Post | Horse | Beyer | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Saratoga | 70 | 103 | 84 |
| 2 | Bati King | 60 | 84 | 86 |
| 3 | Book'em Danno | 88 | 110 | 103 |
| 4 | Crazy Mason | 75 | 91 | 86 |
| 5 | Banded Rocket | 70 | 94 | 90 |
| 6 | El Principito | 61 | 88 | 77 |
| 7 | Rathmore | 67 | 92 | 86 |
Looking at the pace
The TimeformUS pace projector is calling for a moderate pace, with no. 5 Banded Rocket and no. 7 Rathmore expected to duke it out for the lead. The addition of blinkers to long shot no. 2 Bati King could put him closer to the front than usual.
Speed types have been doing well at Tampa Bay Downs recently. From Dec. 30 to Jan. 10, runners on the pace or within one length of it have won at a 54 percent clip in dirt sprints. By contrast, speed types won at a 44 percent clip from Nov. 22 to Dec. 29.
HRN Pasco Picks
This week's Super Screener will try to replicate its performance from Breeders' Cup weekend with picks for the Pasco Stakes. Take advantage of Super Screener's keep winning all winter offer with one low price through the 2024 Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1).
You can listen to Super Screener creator Mike Shutty's Pasco picks on the newest edition of the Ron Flatter podcast.
Pasco Stakes jockey angles
Another angle to consider when making Pasco Stakes picks is hot jockeys. Samuel Marin, aboard 3-2 race favorite no. 3 Book'em Danno, has been on fire since Dec. 30. Samuel Camacho, rider of 9-5 second-choice no. 1 West Saratoga, has been fairly cold in that span.
Here is the field for the Pasco:
2024 Pasco LS
| Post | Silks | Horse / Sire | Rating | Trainer / Jockey | Last Start / Next Start | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
West Saratoga
Exaggerator |
5.74 |
Larry W. Demeritte
Samy Camacho |
5th, 2023 Breeders' Futurity G1 | Entered |
| Last Race | 5th, 2023 Breeders' Futurity G1 | |||||
| 2 |
|
Bati King
Mo Town |
0.00 |
Gerard Ochoa
Angel S. Arroyo |
6th, Tam AlwOC (12/20/23-R6) | Entered |
| Last Race | 6th, Tam AlwOC (12/20/23-R6) | |||||
| 3 |
|
Book'em Danno
Bucchero |
5.34 |
Derek S. Ryan
Samuel Marin |
2nd, 2023 Nashua LS | Entered |
| Last Race | 2nd, 2023 Nashua LS | |||||
| 4 |
|
Crazy Mason
Coal Front |
4.84 |
Gregory D. Sacco
Mychel J. Sanchez |
2nd, 2023 Inaugural LS | Entered |
| Last Race | 2nd, 2023 Inaugural LS | |||||
| 5 |
|
Banded Rocket
Malibu Moon |
0.00 | Kathleen O'Connell | 1st, Tam MSW (12/24/23-R7) | Entered |
| Last Race | 1st, Tam MSW (12/24/23-R7) | |||||
| 6 |
|
El Principito
Accelerate |
0.00 |
Michael Laurato
Gabriel Maldonado |
7th, Tam AlwOC (12/20/23-R6) | Entered |
| Last Race | 7th, Tam AlwOC (12/20/23-R6) | |||||
| 7 |
|
Rathmore
Cupid |
0.00 |
Thomas Albertrani
Antonio A. Gallardo |
3rd, 2023 Inaugural LS | Entered |
| Last Race | 3rd, 2023 Inaugural LS | |||||