Pacific Classic fair odds: Don’t respect these elders at Del Mar

The Grade 1, $1 million Pacific Classic on Saturday at Del Mar is not only an East Coast vs. West Coast battle but also a generational test.

Fierceness, the 2023 champion 2-year-old male and a 2024 finalist for 3-year-old male, is no stranger to shipping west. He did so when winning the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita and finishing second to Sierra Leone in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar.

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Sierra Leone goes in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) against Fierceness’s stablemate Mindframe on Sunday at Saratoga, and Fierceness takes on recent San Diego Handicap (G2) winner Nysos and three-time Grade 1 winner Journalism in the Pacific Classic.

This will be Journalism’s first race against older horses and Nysos’s first two-turn Grade 1 race. Those are both big steps in any horse’s career. Fierceness already has taken those steps, though he has seemingly taken steps backward in his last two starts. He finished second in the Met Mile (G1) at 4-5 and a non-threatening fifth in the Whitney (G1) at 6-5. Those losses came after a scintillating, 4-year-old debut in the Alysheba Stakes (G2) off a six-month layoff after the Breeders’ Cup.

Nysos and Journalism appear to be going in better directions. Nysos finished second to next-out Stephen Foster (G1) winner Mindframe in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) in his 4-year-old debut before returning to California to win the Triple Bend (G3) and San Diego by a combined 8 1/4 lengths. 

Journalism has not raced in California since winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1). That preceded a Triple Crown season composed of a Preakness Stakes win and runner-up finishes to eventual Travers (G1) winner Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Journalism then shipped east again to win the Haskell (G1).

Sovereignty is unquestionably the leader of the 3-year-old division, regardless of what happens in the Pacific Classic. But a win on Saturday at Del Mar would put Journalism in position to wrest the Eclipse Award away from his rival with a Breeders’ Cup Classic win. A Pacific Classic victory also would flatter Sovereignty, likely cementing him as the Classic favorite depending on what happens in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

All that is to say this is a compelling race from both storyline and gambling perspectives. I expect the obvious three horses to take similar amounts of money. If you have a clear thought on who of the three is better, you probably are going to get the right price.

I like Journalism best. I’ve seen criticism about the number of races catching up to him, but he has raced only once since June 7. It will have been six weeks between the Haskell and Pacific Classic with three well-spaced works into this. If he gets beat, it will not be because of the number of races.

Journalism has been consistently faster than both Fierceness and Nysos. Fierceness has faster races further back in his past performances, but Journalism is faster in his last two starts, and I think he can improve here with the six weeks off. Nysos could move forward, too, although the 1 1/4-mile distance is his biggest question mark.

The top three here are tough to look past. I’d be ecstatic with 5-2 on Journalism and am looking to make just a win bet on this race.

The Pacific Classic field will be drawn Tuesday at 7 p.m. EDT at a restaurant near Del Mar.