Pacific Classic fair odds: Clear value with Adare Manor out

The Grade 1 Pacific Classic on Saturday at Del Mar has taken some lumps on social media. But although it might lack depth in terms of its top-to-bottom quality, the top three choices would fit in its East Coast counterpart, the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), just as well.

Well, make that top two choices, as news came Friday that morning-line favorite Adare Manor would scratch, leaving a field of eight headlined by Dr. Venkman and Il Miracolo.

I preferred those two to Adare Manor anyway, so her scratch does not change my opinion of the likely winners of the race. But it certainly changes my wagering approach since these are not the clear top two choices versus the two alternatives to the favorite.

Horse Racing Nation's AI-driven morning-line solution has Dr. Venkman as the favorite with Il Miracolo the clear second choice. I have it the other way around, which means the clear wagering choice here is Il Miracolo.

Il Miracolo took a big step forward last out when second in the Iselin Stakes (G3) two weeks ago at Monmouth. This is a quick turnaround, but I like that the class figures hold up given he was second to another West Coast-based horse. And although he's 0-for-9 at 1 1/8 miles or beyond, those were mostly decent races against good horses. 

Dr. Venkman won the San Diego Handicap (G2) last out when making his first try around two turns. He adds more distance for this test, but given what we saw in the San Diego and the breeding by Ghostzapper out of an Archarcharch mare, there is little concern.

My wagering strategy will be to lean heavily on Il Miracolo with a look at the exacta will-pays involving the top two. I just don't like anyone else.