Pacific Classic 2022: Odds & analysis for the Del Mar Grade 1

The Grade 1, $1 milllion Pacific Classic will be run on Saturday at Del Mar. The 1 1/4-mile contest drew a field of six horses from the older male dirt division headlined by the undefeated 4-year-old Flightline.

The Pacific Classic is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series and offers a "win and you’re in" spot in the $6 million Classic.

Flightline has not run for almost three months. When last seen he traveled east t to win his second Grade 1 in the Metropolitan Handicap going a mile at Belmont Park by six lengths. The son of Tapit was the odds-on favorite in all four of his starts going back to April 2021 when he won his first start by 13 1/4 lengths at Santa Anita. 

Here is a full-field analysis for the Pacific Classic, which is carded as race 10, with the official track morning line odds.

1. Extra Hope (30-1 – Shanghai Bobby – Richard Mandella / Tyler Baze – 21: 4-3-4 - $326,681) You have to go all the way back to 2020 to find a victory for Extra Hope when he won the Native Diver (G3) at Del Mar in gate-to-wire style. His last two starts are the best that he has had since then with a second in a Santa Anita allowance and a third in the Cougar II going 1 1/2 miles at Del Mar. This will be his first start in a Grade 1 since he was a 2-year-old and his initial try at ten furlongs. Toss.

2. Country Grammer (4-1 – Tonalist – Bob Baffert / John Velazquez – 11: 4-3-1 - $10,897,320) He brings career earnings of almost $11 million to the Pacific Classic. Most of that money came when he ran second in the Saudi Cup (G1) and then won the Dubai World Cup (G1) this year. The 5-year-old was second in last month's San Diego Handicap (G2) in his first start since racing in the Middle East. In 2021, the son of Tonalist was second in the Californian (G2) and a winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1). He does his best racing when he is on the lead or pressing the pace. Use underneath.

3. Royal Ship (8-1 – Midshipman – Richard Mandella / Mike Smith – 18: 8-2-4 - $570,405) He is a stalwart of the older male dirt division in California with two wins in 2022. In April, the 6-year-old who began his career racing in Brazil, won a stakes at Santa Anita, was third in the Hollywood Gold Cup, and then was victorious the San Diego Handicap (G2) at Del Mar in a 9-1 upset over Country Grammer. In total, Royal Ship has three starts at ten furlongs with a second and a third, but no wins. In the 2021 Hollywood Gold Cup, he finished just a head behind winner Country Grammer. Trainer Richard Mandella has him in excellent form to go the distance at Del Mar. Use underneath.

4. Express Train (12-1 – Union Rags – John Shirreffs / Victor Espinoza – 18: 7-5-3 - $1,365,800) Express Train has three wins and a second in his last four starts, all graded stakes at Santa Anita. A pair of Grade 2 victories during the winter led to a prestigious win in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) in March going the 1 1/4 miles as the 1.10-1 favorite. The 5-year-old was last seen running second as an odds-on favorite in the Californian (G2) behind Stilleto Boy. Trainer John Shirreffs of Zenyatta fame has him training at Del Mar where he has a record of 5: 3-1-0. Last year, Express Train was sixth in the Pacific Classic. Use underneath.

5. Flightline (1-5 – Tapit – John Sadler / Flavien Prat – 4: 4-0-0 - $794,800) Flightline is perfect in four career starts. Each time, he was a heavy favorite and an easy winner by a combined 33 1/2 lengths. His first two starts in 2021 were run at six furlongs with Lasix. Flightline moved up to the Grade 1 level when he raced without that medication and in the Malibu (G1) at Santa Anita and then increased in distance most recently in June in the Met Mile at Belmont Park, which is the only time he left California to race. The 4-year-old had to miss training time due to some minor physical issues, so trainer John Sadler has trained him carefully and raced him sparingly. In the Pacific Classic, it will be the first time that Flightline will run around two turns while tackling the classic 1 1/4 miles distance. Top Choice.

6. Stilleto Boy (20-1 – Shackleford – Ed Moger, Jr. / Juan Hernandez – 17: 3-3-7 - $1,091,175) He has one win in his past 10 starts and that came in the Californian (G2) at Santa Anita in April. Granted that all but one of those starts was in graded-stakes company. His recent victory in the Californian happened when he raced on the front-end. Stilleto Boy’s record shows one start at the ten-furlong distance and that was a third-place finish in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) in March. He is a millionaire earner with plenty of top three finishes. Trifecta possible.

Summary: Most of the races in the older male division in California have involved the same horses who have taken turns getting to the winner’s circle. Some of those horses are back in the Pacific Classic but they are joined this time by Flightline, who beat some of them when demolishing the Malibu by 11 1/2 lengths in December.

Flightline’s four-race past performances overwhelm this quality field and it is hard to imagine a scenario where he would not be the winner. He is the likeliest of winners with the rest hard to separate in the exacta and trifecta spots.