Pennsylvania Derby fair odds: A clear choice in a deep field

They all should be this easy. 

Famous last words, right? But Saudi Crown really does look like the clear play in the Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby on Saturday at Parx.

He has controlling speed, no concern for the slop and the fastest numbers through a healthy form cycle.

It all adds up to a prime win bet at his morning line price of 7-2. The issue, of course, is that he will not be 7-2. But even if Reincarnate is not favored as the morning line suggests, surely he will be overbet shipping in for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert off a win at this distance.

Let's hope so because that is the key to betting this race. If both Saudi Crown and Reincarnate are underlays, that means there's opportunity elsewhere, but there's just not anyone else I'd be excited betting. 

My second tier of contenders would be Magic Tap, Scotland and Gilmore. Rather than worrying about picking one of the three if things get silly on the top two choices, then perhaps an exacta box trying to beat both favorites is prudent as a six-unit action bet.

But make no mistake, I'd love to get 2-1 on Saudi Crown.