Omaha Beach vs. four in Malibu Stakes 2019; odds and analysis

Just five horses were signed on for Saturday’s Grade 1, $300,000 Malibu Stakes, the feature on opening day at Santa Anita Park. But it is an interesting event nonetheless with two major contenders in Omaha Beach and Complexity. The former is retiring soon, while the latter is starting anew.

On paper, Complexity's last race speed figure is not far off Omaha Beach, which makes him the narrow choice to win in this analysis. A closer look at each contender is below with a prospective morning line by Horse Racing Nation

The Malibu Stakes is carded as Race 9 with a post time set for approximately 3 p.m. PT.

1. Much Better, 10-1 (Pioneerof the Nile – Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat – 10: 2-3-1): While this Baffert horse finished a close second by a nose in a Del Mar optional claimer, opponents such as Horse Greedy and California Street are no monsters. He only earned a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process and tends to burn out early. Toss.

2. Complexity, 2-1 (Maclean's Music – Chad Brown/Javier Castellano – 5: 3-0-0): With a 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned in his return win at Aqueduct, this colt is ready for graded stakes competition again. Notice he won by 7 ¼ lengths over Mr. Dougie Fresh, with it another 6 ½ lengths back to Hawaiian Noises. Spaced-out margins are a sign of a quality effort. With one more step forward, he could upset. The pick.

3. Manny Wah, 12-1 (Will Take Charge – Bob Baffert/Channing Hill – 13: 3-3-2): The optional claiming win at Churchill Downs and runner-up finish in the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes at Mahoning Valley are both good efforts. But this is a different kind of class level, even with only four other horses entered. Perhaps he improves with the switch from Wayne Catalano to Bob Baffert. But it doesn’t seem worth betting on that with only a month between races. Toss.

4. Roadster, 6-1 (Quality Road – Bob Baffert/Joel Rosario – 8: 3-2-1): The fourth-place finish in the Native Diver Stakes (G3) was, by every measure, a terrible effort. It’s hard to blame the distance, as he won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) at nine furlongs last spring. Two races ago, he also finish a good second off the bench to Flagstaff in the Damascus Stakes. His overall will to win is questionable, but the talent is known. Use underneath.

5. Omaha Beach, 4/5 (War Front – Richard Mandella/Mike Smith – 9: 4-4-1): Most racing fans know this colt well enough. He finished a good second in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile after Spun to Run shot from the gate, effectively winning it. Two races ago, Omaha Beach also beat a talented 3-year-old in Shancelot around one turn in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1) off a layoff. Conventional wisdom says that Mike Smith plays this race more aggressively than the Breeders’ Cup. At even money, though, it’s worth looking elsewhere. Win contender.

Conclusion: Complexity and Omaha Beach are the two logical As in horizontal wagers. In racing, anything can happen, making it sensible to use at least one other contender in addition to the big favorite coming off a defeat.

Meanwhile, playing this race vertically with exotics is probably not the best idea.