Old Dominion Oaks-Derby fair odds: Single here, spread there

The open stakes action for the 2025 season at Colonial Downs concludes on Saturday with a pair of turf races for three-year-olds: the Old Dominion Oaks for fillies and the Grade 3 Old Dominion Derby for males.

The Old Dominion Derby features Saratoga Derby winner World Beater, and given that one has won three of his last four with the lone loss coming to Test Score in the Belmont Derby, there is no reason to think he cannot run his "A" race against these. Forget trying to get the 9-5 morning line price, we would be happy with odds-on in here given our 4-5 fair odds. 

Of course, if I think the horse is value at 4-5 then there is a chance he goes even lower. The trouble is: even if he were something absurd like 2-5 that still makes a horse like Iron Hand to get to 8-1. He is the one I'd be most interested in, though, given his forward style and ability to control this race. That will be an in-race decision, though. For multi-race wagering purposes, I am comfortable singling World Beater with no backups.

The Old Dominion Oaks starts the Old Dominion double and offers more opportunity given my shortest price on fair odds is Evershed at 2-1 off a similar morning line. Fair odds on an Evershed-World Beater double are 9-2. I do not think we will get that, but the next tier of contenders in the Old Dominion Oaks could offer more inflated prices.

The inside and outside horses, Somethinabouther and Will Then, both have races capable of being forward. I see Will Then as slightly more likely but could envision Somethinabouther being the bigger overlay. Couple that with the rail and a daughter of Mendelssohn stretching out to 1 1/8 miles, and she is an exciting prospect.

Sigh No More is a deep closer who never really got going in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2). She won a stakes two back with Axel Concepcion up, and he returns to ride this Brendan Walsh trainee here. Walsh also trains the aforementioned Somethinabouther. As a coupled entry, fair odds on the pair would be 3-1, which I actually think we'd get. Count me among those who do not hate coupled entries.

Anyway, if the crowd overbets Evershed and Will Then, then the Walsh barn could be potent here, both in vertical exotics and keyed with World Beater in the Derby.