Ohio Derby fair odds: Classic starters prop prices on others

For any hardened horseplayer, one of the great traditions of the post Triple Crown season is betting against Kentucky Derby starters when they return following the Triple Crown.

Derby starters who make their next start in a non-Grade 1 race have a -46 percent ROI since 1991, though that number has improved to just -23 percent over the last 10 years. Regardless, it is fair to expect these horses to be overbet, and that is the path I am taking in opposing Chunk of Gold in the Ohio Derby on Saturday at Jack Thistledown.

Granted, there is another classic alum in this race in the form of Preakness Stakes pacesetter Clever Again, but his allure to bettors is as likely the result of Jose Ortiz shipping in with the Steve Asmussen trainee and his stakes win this year as it is his participation five weeks ago at Pimlico Race Course.

Indeed, Clever Again's performance in the Hot Springs Stakes performance wins this race its fair share of times, but running back to that race following the Preakness with two legitimate speed threats to his outside is no guarantee, even with one of the hottest jocks in for the ride.

Mo Plex interests me most despite the outside post position. He has had a solid spring while never venturing beyond a one-turn mile. Shipping to the Cleveland area to tackle a two-turn 1 1/8 miles is certainly not without some concern, but sire Complexity has very good numbers routing on dirt. His turf form is suspect, however, so stats that are surface agnostic may lead handicappers down a dangerous path.

Master Controller is the other speed on the outside, and obviously this is a tall order after exiting a maiden claiming race sprinting at Churchill Downs, but Ragozin data says this horse can fit if things go his way. I think he is worth using in the gimmicks to hang on for a piece or even steal it.

That brings us to McAfee, who I see as the most likely upset winner. Clever Again is the most likely winner, but I think he'll be on the south side of his 9-5 morning line vs. the 2-1 fair odds I'd want. McAfee is 3-1 on the morning line, but I think Chunk of Gold gets bet more. My concern with McAfee isn't talent-I've liked his last two races-it's more about class. The New York form has not held well this Triple Crown season, but these waters are not as deep as Hill Road faced in the Belmont Stakes.

Why am I so against Chunk of Gold? I was expecting a move forward in the Kentucky Derby and it didn't happen. His is a great story and the connections are easy to root for, but I can't take a short price on a horse who did not develop in a spot where he was expected to. If he proves me wrong and moves forward here then he could be a threat back in Grade 1 company later this summer.