Ohio Derby fair odds: Two Phil's is an imposing presence

Two Phil's is one of those horses who help make the various derbies in the Midwest exciting as a fan but tough sledding as a horseplayer.

When the Kentucky Derby runner-up shows up at for the Grade 3 Ohio Derby at Thistledown on Saturday, he is going to be overbet. If he should be 1-2 he will be 1-5; if he should be even money, he will be 3-5. He should be favored, and he will be favored.

Sometimes, an obvious underlay leads to opportunity. The perfect scenario occurs when a better horse enters against a more well-known horse, but that is not the case with this year's Ohio Derby, where Two Phil's is the most likely winner.

But he will be overbet. I have him at 6-5 on my line, and that's probably too high, but I just was not comfortable making horses like Bishops Bay higher than he is. So where is the opportunity?

Well, there is another Kentucky Derby entrant in the Ohio Derby in the form of Lord Miles, who will be making his first start since winning the Wood Memorial Stakes (G3) after scratching from the Kentucky Derby. Henry Q has some name recognition after being on the Triple Crown trail and is co-owned by UCLA coach and Ohio native Mick Cronin. Both will be overbet.

That leaves Bishops Bay, who will get attention for a second behind eventual Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo in the Peter Pan Stakes. His trainer Brad Cox also has shipped and won the Ohio Derby before with Owendale and Tawny Port.

Hayes Strike is the potential key at 6-1 third choice on my line and very possibly the fifth choice in the wagering. If things get quick upfront, this could be the one running late, and if Two Phil's is not ready then maybe he runs by them all.

"Two Phil's is not ready" is a big gamble. That's a pig in a poke. I have not handicapped the preceding four races on the 12-race card, but my hope is there are no other favorites I like, as I would be willing to single Two Phil's on a Pick 5 ticket that did not use any other favorites.

If anything, I'm probably overvaluing the local trio, as their aggregate odds of winning are about 20-1, and that seems underlaid. 

Horse Racing Nation President Mark Midland and I discuss more in the video below, and he is even more bullish on Two Phil's than I am.