Ohio Derby odds and analysis: Who threatens Two Phil's?

The Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby on Saturday at Jack Thistledown Racino is the start of the summer mid-major Derby series. Two Phil’s, who had the lead in the Kentucky Derby and finished second, was named the 8-5 morning-line favorite.

Trainer Brad Cox won the Ohio Derby twice with Tawny Port last year and Owendale in 2019. Doug O’Neill had a victory in the race with Irap in 2017, and Kenny McPeek had the 2003 winner Wild and Wicked.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Ohio Derby with the official track morning-line odds. The Ohio Derby is scheduled as race 12 of 12 with post time set for 6:20 p.m. EDT.

1. Henry Q, 5-1, Blame, Doug O’Neill, Kendrick Carmouche, 6: 2-0-2 - $175,140. Henry Q will ship in an easterly direction from Santa Anita for Doug O’Neill once again. He ran his first three times in California, breaking his maiden in an optional claimer in February. He traveled to Sunland Park, winning the Mine That Bird Derby and then getting third in the Sunland Park Derby (G3) on the Kentucky Derby trail. Most recently he was third in the Peter Pan (G3), eight lengths behind the Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo. Toss.

2. Timesatappin, 30-1, Tapiture, Lori Loudin-Smith, Kevin Gonzalez, 6: 1-0-2, $23,281. Timesatappin is a local horse who made all six of his starts in Ohio. The first three were at Mahoning Valley, including his maiden victory in April going a mile racing from last. At Thistledown he has tried winners in allowance races with a pair of thirds and a fourth 19 days ago. Toss.

3. Bishops Bay, 3-1, Uncle Mo, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 3: 2-1-0, $112,600. Bishops Bay is another lightly raced promising 3-year-old from the Brad Cox barn. He broke his maiden at first asking at Fair Grounds in February with a very fast speed figure and then won an allowance. In the Peter Pan he once again pressed the pace and lost by a head to Arcangelo. In this field he has a chance to get loose on the lead. He prepped for the Ohio Derby with a fast workout at Churchill Downs. Top choice.

4. Two Phil’s, 8-5, Hard Spun, Larry Rivelli, Jareth Loveberry, 9: 4-2-1, $1,283,450. Two Phil’s has the best resume in the field. With his gallant second in the Kentucky Derby and a pair of Grade 3 victories, he is by far the leading money winner in the field. He is the only horse in the field with a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, and he has two of them in his most recent starts. After the run for the roses, trainer Rivelli did not hesitate to skip the final two legs of the Triple Crown to rest Two Phil’s with an eye on this race, although he has been breezing on a weekly basis for the past month. The one to beat.

5. Agnello’s Dream, 20-1, Always Dreaming, Jeffrey Skerrett, Erik Barbaran, 13: 2-2-3, $53,988. Agnello’s Dream has 13 career starts, and all of them are at Ohio tracks. Both of his wins were in December at Mahoning Valley going a mile in his maiden score and then cutting back to sprinting. Agnello’s Dream since has run exclusively in N3L conditioned allowances with four top-three finishes recently. Toss.

6. Last Cookie, 30-1, Barnardini, Johanna Urieta, Leandro Briceno, 6: 1-1-0, $146,410. Last Cookie began his career with Brad Cox when he first tried a pair of maiden special weights. Then he won a maiden claimer at Turfway Park going a mile by more than five lengths and was claimed for the $15,000 tag. He moved to racing in Ohio in first-level allowances and recently had the lead but finished second at Thisledown. Toss.

7. Lord Miles, 7-2, Curlin, Saffie Joseph Jr., Edgard Zayas, 5: 2-0-1, $451,100. Lord Miles was last seen racing when he was the upset winner of the Wood Memorial (G2) at 59-1. He was entered to run in the Kentucky Derby but then was not allowed to go when trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. was blocked from racing at Churchill Downs. So now it has been 2 1/2 months since Lord Miles raced, although he has been training at Gulfstream Park. Toss.

8. Hayes Strike, 6-1, Connect, Kenny McPeek, Cristian Torres, 11: 3-1-1, $388,825. Hayes Strike has lots of experience for trainer McPeek, who does not hesitate to run his horses when they are sound. His last six starts were in stakes races. He has two victories in listed stakes in the Private Terms at Laurel Park and the Texas Derby at Lone Star on either side of a seventh-place finish in the Blue Grass (G1). He is a late runner whom I expect to pass tried horses in the Ohio Derby and is running at an appropriate level. Use underneath.

Summary: Two Phil’s is the horse to beat in the Ohio Derby. His performance in the Kentucky Derby was excellent. He contested the early pace, got the lead and was beaten in the final stages of the race by Mage, who got a perfect trip.

Lord Miles was a graded-stakes winner as a long shot and now faces a significant layoff. Hayes Strike is a stakes winner who seems to have become a deep closer.

Bishops Bay ran an excellent race to finish a head behind Arcangelo, and I expect him to do what Brad Cox trained 3-year-olds to do, which is to win stakes races. Bishops Bay is the top choice to pull a small upset and win the Ohio Derby.