Ohio Derby 2018: Odds and analysis for Thistledown's race

Saturday's Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby, which is run at JACK Thistledown Racino in the Cleveland suburbs, kicks off the second season of graded stakes races that are restricted to 3-year-old males. This year’s event is headlined by Lone Sailor and Flameaway, both of whom ran in 2018 Kentucky Derby.

Last year’s Ohio Derby, with its stretch battle between Irap and Girvin, was one of the finest in race history. Irap went on to take his next start in the Indiana Derby before finishing third and second, respectively, in the Travers and Pennsylvania Derby. Girvin took down the Haskell Invitational in his next start. Untrapped, who was third, also won the Oklahoma Derby.

This year's 1 1/8-mile contest is scheduled as Race 9 on a Saturday card with a 5:10 p.m. ET post time. Here's the field of 12 with the official morning line.

 Takedown [ML 20-1 – Take Charge Indy – L. Gaudet/L. Colon – 7: 2-1-2 - $62,870] The first of three horses in the field from Loooch Racing Stable, this one has been based in the Maryland with trainer Lacey Gaudet. He sports an allowance victory at Laurel Park before trying two listed stakes, with a third-place finish in the JW Murphy Stakes. The closer faces a serious class challenge in this Grade 3 race. Second-string Loooch runner.
 

 Flameaway [ML 5-2 – Scat Daddy – M. Casse/J.Lezcano – 10: 5-2-0 - $379,237] Last time Flameaway ran in a Grade 3 race, he was the winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes on the Kentucky Derby trail. Before that, he won on the turf at Gulfstream Park and the artificial surface at Woodbine. He was second in the Tampa Derby (G2) and the Blue Grass, then finished 13th on the first Saturday in May. Thistledown will mark the eighth different track at which he has raced. This versatile competitor likes to be part of the early going. Clearly the one to beat.

 Lone Sailor [ML 3-1 – Majestic Warrior – Amoss/I. Ortiz – 10: 1-3-1 - $379,237] Lone Sailor missed winning the Louisiana Derby (G2) when he fell a neck short of Noble Indy. In the Triple Crown races, he was eighth in the Derby and fifth in the Preakness behind Justify. Yet, this son of Majestic Warrior has only one career victory way back in his second career start on the Saratoga slop. Certainly, he will be getting significant class relief in this Grade 3 race. Tom Amoss has him training smartly for the trip to Ohio from Churchill Downs. He won’t have to chase Justify here.

 Caloric [ML 30-1 – Stay Thirsty– Londono/Mejias – 5: 2-0-0 - $31,800] Caloric was claimed twice, the first he was taken from Todd Pletcher when he won a $25,000 maiden Claimer and then in the next race from Jason Servis after he dropped in for $16,000. Both claims happened at Gulfstream Park. After that, the new ownership tried the Tampa Derby where he ran seventh. Based at Thistledown, he was sent to get third in a sprint stake at Presque Isle. Former claimer is in a very tough spot.
 

 Title Ready [ML 10-1 – More Than Ready – Asmussen/C. J. McMahon – 8: 2-2-1 - $173,850] You will see lots of Kentucky Derby horses in the running lines of this Asmussen charge. He was fourth in the Rebel Stakes (G2) behind Magnum Moon after setting the pace for six furlongs. On the Preakness Stakes undercard, he then ran second behind Ax Man in the Sir Barton. Expect Title Ready to push the early pace, where he is likely to find the favorite Flameaway. Can he carry his speed nine furlongs?

 Trigger Warning [ML 12-1 – Candy Ride – Rone/Rosendo – 10: 4-0-1 - $107,778] This Thistledown-based sprinter has won his two last starts. The first was an allowance at Sunland Park before a stakes at Presque Isle in 1:08 and change. He could be another one that helps make what appears to be a very quick early pace in this running of the Ohio Derby. Pure speed.

 Diamond King [ML 6-1 – Quality Road – John Servis/F. Pennington – 7: 4-0-1 - $222,600] Diamond King’s only bad race came in the Preakness, when he didn't deal well with rain, fog and Justify. Perhaps you can draw a line through that effort, instead going back to a nice win in Laurel Park's Tesio going 1 1/8 miles. He also ran third in the Swale behind the speedy Strike Power. He is another that is likely to be forwardly placed. He has done very little wrong in his career.

 Machismo [ML 20-1 – More Than Ready – Quartarolo/Radke – 7: 1-0-1 - $379,237] Owner Ron Paolucci lives in Akron, Ohio, and there is nothing he would rather do than win this home state Derby. That is, when he's not taking down six-figure Pick 6 jackpots. This Loooch Stable runner is another one in the field with just a maiden victory that is seeking class relief after competing on this year’s Kentucky Derby trail. His best finish there was a fourth-place effort in the Fountain of Youth, but that was followed by two uncompetitive starts in the Blue Grass (G2) and the Arkansas Derby (G1). Off since that start at Oaklawn Park, he has two recent works under the Twin Spires. His best races were when he could compete for the early lead. This will be his first start on the Ohio track. The top Loooch runner.

 O’Kratos [ML 12-1 – Paddy O’ Prado – Banach/C. Hill – 6: 3-0-1 - $121,263] This Woodbine-based runner ships to Ohio with two wins in a row that include a seven-furlong sprint and the Marine (G3). He looks like one that will have to sit a stalking trip in this field. To no surprise, this son of Paddy O’Prado has run well on turf and synthetic tracks, but has yet to try a conventional dirt surface. Will he take to the main track?

 Core Beliefs [ML 5-1 – Quality Road – Eurton/Talamo – 5: 1-1-3 - $235,360] Core Beliefs has only one win but has never been out of the money, including third-place in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) behind Justify and Bolt d’Oro. He then shipped to run second to Blended Citizen in the Peter Pan (G3). Both of those races look good in his past performances, but Blended Citizen and Bolt d’Oro also flopped on Belmont Stakes day. He joins a long list of horses that are pace pressers. Another serious contender.

 Dream Baby Dream [ML 15-1 – Into Mischief – Asmussen/R. Feliciano – 10: 1-1-4 - $255,643] Here's another one with only a maiden victory but showed up on the Derby trail when he finished second in the Sunland Derby. However, his two subsequent starts in the Arkansas Derby and the Sir Barton did not measure up. He does like to run off the pace, which is a positive given this likely pace scenario. This field represents a big challenge.

 Last Drop of Wine [ML 30-1 – Sing Baby Sing – Rini/T.D. Houghton – 11: 2-1-0 - $42,139] This is the third runner from the Loooch team. He was taken as a 2-year-old from a victory in a $15,000 maiden claimer. He won his next start in a $30,000 claiming race but has not won since in allowance company. Third-string Loooch runner.

Summary: The Ohio Derby has drawn a strong field of horses looking to make their mark in the remaining graded stakes that are restricted to 3-year-olds. With so much of the field preferring to run on or near the front end in the early going, including Diamond King and Flameaway, it makes sense to choose a closer to pick up the pieces. That makes Lone Sailor the logical choice to come running late for the win, especially on a fast track.