Ogden Phipps 2020: Odds and analysis

The Ogden Phipps (G1) will be run on Saturday at the 1 1/16-mile distance, which at Belmont Park is around one turn. In addition to the purse of $300,000, the Phipps is the season's first “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Keeneland on Nov. 7.

The last three winners of the Ogden Phipps – Midnight Bisou, Abel Tasman, and Songbird – were 4-year-olds when they won the race hailing from a Hall of Famer's barn. Each were also ridden by jockey Mike Smith.

Although the field is without the Older Female division superstars Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl, all six of the fillies and mares are graded stakes winners.

Here is a full-field analysis of the Ogden Phipps, which is slated as Race 9 of 10 with post-time scheduled for 5:36 p.m. ET. Morning line odds are projected by Horse Racing Nation.

1) Pink Sands [ML 4-1 – Tapit – S. McGaughey/J. Ortiz – 16: 6-3-4 - $468,300] This 5-year-old daughter of Tapit won her last two starts with late-closing moves during the winter in the Rampart (G3) and the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream Park. She will return to Belmont Park, which is her home base, and make her first start in a Grade 1 race off a January layoff. Four of her six career victories came at Gulfstream; the other two were at Saratoga and Monmouth Park. Lots of early speed will be to her aid. Win Contender.

2) Point of Honor [ML 2-1 – Curlin – G. Weaver/J. Castellano – 8: 3-3-1 - $534,040] Last year, Point of Honor won the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) on Preakness weekend and followed that with seconds in the two of the biggest Grade 1 races in New York, the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and the Alabama (G1). Most recently, the George Weaver trainee was third in the Apple Blossom (G1) after breaking badly and rallying from 23 lengths behind. There is early speed in the field that can set up her usual closing move. Top Choice.

3) She's a Julie [ML 5-1 – Elusive Quality – S. Asmussen/R. Santana Jr. – 18: 6-2-4 - $1,022,880] As a millionaire and a past Grade 1 winner, She’s a Julie brings an outstanding resume to New York for her first start at Belmont Park. She prefers to be close to the early pace as she did when she last won the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs more than a year ago. Since then she competed extensively against the best in the Older Female division. Her 2020 debut was a throw out after she broke in the air at the start. Use underneath.

4) Blamed [ML 8-1 – Blame – B. Mott/J. Velazquez – 14: 9-2-0 - $565,065] Although this 5-year-old mare is now trained by Mott, she has yet to make a start at Belmont Park. She began her career racing at Zia Park and Sunland before moving to the Hall of Famer's barn in the fall of her 3-year-old campaign. Amongst her nine career victories are the Royal Delta (G3) last year at Gulfstream Park and the other at Aqueduct in the Comely (G3) as a 3-year-old. She does her best running while on the lead but will face a lot of competition out front. Toss

5) Ollie's Candy [ML 5-2 – Candy Ride – J. Sadler/J. Rosario – 12: 4-4-2 - $744,151] John Sadler has sent front-running winner of the 2019 Clement L. Hirsch (G1) from his Santa Anita Park barn to make her first in New York. She has been versatile in the past and can win from a stalking position. All four of her wins came on the dirt, although early in her career she did run in graded company over the turf. Most recently, she had the lead in the Apple Blossom (G1) but was caught right at the wire by Ce Ce. Win Contender.

6) Golden Award [ML 10-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – B. Mott/J. Alvarado – 12: 5-4-0 - $406,800] This two-time graded stakes winner took the Turnback the Alarm Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct and the Shuvee (G3) at Saratoga last year while being part of the early pace. Both of those wins came at a mile and an eighth around two turns. She has only one start in 2020, and that was in February on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park in the Royal Delta when she was second by less than a length. Toss.

Summary: The Ogden Phipps drew a small but contentious field of six with four of the fillies and mares showing a preference to race on or near the early pace. That gives the advantage to the two established closers, Point of Honor and Pink Sands.

Point of Honor gets the nod here based on her big rally last time. Ollie’s Candy is probably the best of the pace pressers and should be there at the wire. Those two face off again after they ran against one other in the Apple Blossom when Ollie’s Candy was a close second and Point of Honor ran third.