Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup: Odds and Analysis

While not a formal prep for the Breeders’ Cup, perhaps a promising runner or two may ship from Keeneland to Del Mar following Saturday’s Grade I, $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup — an invitation-only event for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the turf.

Inaugurated in 1984, when the queen herself was on the grounds in Lexington, Ky., the QE II has produced two Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winners, though Perfect Sting (2012) and Dayatthespa (2014) contended for the championship race in different years from their scores at Keeneland.

Eleven were invited for this year’s running, the 9th of 10 races on the card set for a 5:30 p.m. post time. Here’s a look at the field with morning line odds.

1. Con Te Partiro [ML: 30-1 — Ward — Smith] Fourth in the Del Mar Oaks, but only 1 3/4 lengths from the winner, Con Te Partiro will make her second domestic start Saturday at Keeneland since returning from a victory at Royal Ascot. Her other races this year were run at seven furlongs and a mile. In each, she showed up as a late closer. Won’t likely get a needed hot pace.

2. Proctor’s Ledge [ML: 9-2 — Walsh — Lanerie] She ran third by 3 1/4 lengths in her only other start at Keeneland, this year’s Grade III Appalachian. But that race was contested at just a mile, with the extra distance in the QE II a potential benefit. The daughter of Ghostzapper steps up to Grade I competition with back-to-back stakes victories at Saratoga to her name. Solid form makes her a closer to consider.

3. Daddys Lil Darling [ML: 20-1 — McPeek — Albarado] Kentucky Downs runners won 10 of 30 races run on Keeneland’s opening weekend. If the trend continues, this daughter of Scat Daddy is one to watch. She won the $200,000 Dueling Grounds Oaks last month and has two runner-up finishes at Keeneland at the Grade I level. Add her to your tickets.

4. Dream Dancing [ML: 6-1 — Casse — Leparoux] The Grade I Del Mar Oaks winner, she surged from back in the pack to win by a nose and beat a number of her rivals in this spot. It took a decent pace up front to make it happen — they went the half mile in 47.27 seconds — but the performance validated connections’ switch from dirt to turf this year. Appears best of the closers.

5. Unforgettable Filly (GB) [ML: 20-1 — Palmer — Gordon] One of two European-based invitees, her highlight is a Group II victory in the German One Thousand Guineas. By Australian-bred Sepoy, Unforgetable Filly was also sixth at the Group I level in a start at Newmarket. It would take a career-best effort.

6. La Coronel [ML: 6-1— Casse — Lezcano] The trainer Mark Casse notched five wins, a pair of runner-ups and two 3rd-place efforts from 11 opening-weekend starters at Keeneland. With this filly 2-for-2 over the surface, did Casse find the right spot again? May not have the speed.

7. Wuheida (GB) [ML: 4-1 — Appleby — Buick] Announced Friday, she will scratch.

8. Madam Dancealot (IRE) [ML: 15-1 — Baltas — Theriot] She ran 13th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, though you can draw a line through that one. Another daughter of Sir Prancealot in this field, she has stepped back up to graded stakes competition in her last two starts and hit the board in both. Another closer in a field full of them.

9. Beau Recall (IRE) [ML: 12-1 — Callaghan — Talamo] Second by a nose last time out in the Del Mar Oaks, this daughter of Sir Prancealot is looking for her first victory since January. But in her first season in the United States, the filly has shown herself to be a late runner and has finished 2nd in four of five stakes tries. Capable of winning at this level.

10. Uni (GB) [ML: 9-2 — Brown — Ortiz, Jr.] Since coming to the United States, the daughter of More Than Ready has hit the board in all three starts with finishes of 3rd, then 2nd and finally a win last time out in Belmont’s Grade II Sands Point. Rivals in this race, however, crossed the wire first in Uni’s domestic defeats. Appears a bit overmatched.

11. New Money Honey [ML: 4-1 — Brown — Castellano] While the post isn’t ideal, expect the Chad Brown trainee to jump out close to or on the early lead. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner ran 6th in her only Keeneland start, but that was only the beginning of a 3-year-old campaign that peaked (so far) with a victory in the Grade I Belmont Oaks. She’s the one to catch — and they might not.

Summary: This field, the strongest for fillies until the Breeders’ Cup, is short on speed, and New Money Honey brings the right balance of pace and stamina to win it. Dream Dancing will be closing, and Proctor’s Ledge could be right with her. Wuheida’s was a classy wildcard before her scratch.

By Jonathan Lintner