Fair odds: Bet who they don't bet in Kentucky Oaks prep

If you thought I thought the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes is wide open, then wait until you see my fair odds for the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes on Friday night at Turfway Park, a points prep for the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

Actually, you probably have seen them already because they're above this text. The morning line sees this as a competitive race as well, with a third of the main body of the field between 3-1 and 5-1.

Mike Battaglia has Girl Math as the 3-1 favorite on his line while Horse Racing Nation projects Admit as the post-time favorite. I lean toward Battaglia having this one right because of the presence of Flavian Prat on Girl Math, but Admit does have the two-race win streak at this track and distance. Each of those factors will contribute to these fillies being underlays.

An even bigger underlay to my handicapping eye is Bracelet, who is the 9-2 second choice on the morning line but only my seventh choice in fair odds. I get the price on an odds-on maiden winner from the barn of Brad Cox, but the number power just isn't there. I don't want a short price to bet on this one improving. I am intrigued that this Authentic filly out of a Tapit mare has not tried dirt yet.

The two horses I'm most excited about are Somethinabouther and Foxtastic. The former will be a shorter price given the Grade 3 win last out on Woodbine's Tapeta surface. And although the 2 1/2-month layoff is not nothing, she has been working steadily for trainer Brendan Walsh and Declan Cannon is one of the most underrated jockeys in racing.

Foxtastic exits that same Mazarine Stakes Somethinabout her won, finishing fifth after setting a pace Brisnet calls extremely fast. (Click here for free Brisnet past performances for this weekend's stakes.) The price is right to find out if she can hang on for a piece.