Fair odds: Consider a Cox long shot in Ky. Oaks Future Wager

I always have thought that the more wagering options there are, the more pronounced the favorite-long shot bias becomes.

Enter this week's Kentucky Oaks Future Wager, which asks handicappers to select the winner of the Grade 1 race in seven weeks at Churchill Downs, The menu offers 39 fillies plus a 40th option that encompasses all other 3-year-old fillies. One thing about recent Oaks winners is that we have known who they are by this time on the trail.

That is to say, I am not looking to get too creative when looking for options in the long Oaks future pool, especially since the depth of options is sure to include many underlays among the bottom quarter of the field while providing value somewhere among the top choices.

Tenma interests me most since she is not the morning-line choice but is the most likely winner to my eye. She still has plenty to prove given her last win was against only two other rivals. But there is plenty from her 2-year-old season to suggest she can continue to improve.

Simply Joking is only 12-1 on the morning line, so she will have to drift. But I have not given up on her after she was scratched from her last engagement but firing a bullet workout ahead of her next start.

Trainer Brad Cox holds a heavy hand with morning-line favorite Good Cheer plus Muhimma and three others. And it is one of those others, Velvet Vortex, who I'd be somewhat interested in given how fast that debut came back. She has a lot left to do, and she doesn't really fit my thesis of known commodities by this point. But she is worth watching at a big price.

As for those short-priced Cox fillies, I might be willing to book bets if Good Cheer is actually 3-1. That is just way too short on a filly whose Ragozin figures aren't close to among the fastest of several of these.