Oaklawn Handicap 2026: Odds and analysis
The 10th running of the $1.25 million, Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, which will be run on Saturday, drew a field of six which includes the 2026 debuts of Triple Crown race winners Sovereignty and Journalism.
Sovereignty won the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and the Travers last year on the way to be named the horse of the year and champion 3-year-old Male. Journalism was second in the Derby and the Belmont behind Sovereignty but won the Preakness and two other Grade 1 races during 2025.
This field of six combined to win 33 races with earnings of $19.5 million. With White Abarrio in the field, there are three millionaires. The top three are Grade 1 winners and a total of five are stakes winners.
Here are the odds and analysis for the 1 1/8-mile Oaklawn Handicap with the official track morning line odds. The feature is set as race 11 out of 12 with post time scheduled for 6:20 p.m. ET.
1. White Abarrio, 7-2. Race Day – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 25: 10-3-3 - $7,713,920. White Abarrio is now a 7-year-old making start No. 26 in his career that includes four Grade 1 victories over the years. Most recently he won the 2025 Pegasus World Cup. His other Grade 1 victories include the 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic, the 2023 Whitney and the 2022 Florida Derby. This will be his first start at Oaklawn and the 11th different track at which he has run, although eight of his victories were at his home track of Gulfstream Park. This will be the second start of the year for White Abarrio after he had the lead in the stretch and finished second in what was his third appearance in the Pegasus. Win contender.
2. Liberal Arts, 15-1. Arrogate – Heather Irion / Reynier Arrieta – 13: 5-1-4 - $589,016. Liberal Arts will be making his first appearance of the year after a nearly year-long layoff. He has been training at Oaklawn this year since a May victory at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard in the Knicks Go, which was restricted to non-stakes winners. He was the winner of the 2023 Street Sense (G3) against a field of five. Toss.
3. Sovereignty, 4-5. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 9: 6-2-0 - $5,835,300. Sovereignty was last seen winning for the fourth time in a row in the Travers which was also the third Grade 1 victory of his career and the third consecutive win at Saratoga. He will race at Oaklawn for the first time but found the winner’s circle at three different tracks. All six of his wins were in graded stakes because as a 2-year-old he got his maiden score in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs. This 2026 debut will also be the first time that Sovereignty will race against older horses. The one to beat.
4. Duke of Duval, 20-1. Arrogate – Steve Asmussen / Keith Asmussen – 13: 3-4-2 - $329,315. Duke of Duval has a pair of allowance victories to his credit last year at Ellis Park and Oaklawn. His starts this year produced a fourth in the Mineshaft (G3) at Fair Grounds and fifth in the Essex (G3) at Oaklawn. The longshot.
5. Journalism, 5-2. Curlin – Michael McCarthy / Jose Ortiz – 11: 6-3-1 - $4,348,880. Journalism was the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby based on his undefeated record that included a maiden at Del Mar and then three on the Derby trail at Los Alamitos and two at Santa Anita. He looked like a winner on the first Saturday in May and the Belmont Stakes but was passed by Sovereignty in both of those Triple Crown races. Away from Sovereignty, he won the Preakness and the Haskell. He ran twice against older horses at the end of 2025 and was second in the Pacific Classic (G1) and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Always well-regarded by the betting public, Journalism was the favorite in all three of the Triple Crown races. Win contender.
6. Publisher, 15-1. American Pharoah – Steve Asmussen / Erik Asmussen – 15: 3-4-3 - $715,396. Publisher got his first stakes victory in March in the American Pharoah Stakes which was restricted to non-winners of a stakes race in the past two years. He won his last three starts and they were all at Oaklawn moving from a maiden to an allowance to the American Pharoah. He was a heavy favorite in his last five races. Toss.
Summary: Saturday’s Oaklawn Handicap will be the third time that Sovereignty and Journalism have faced each other on the track. The first two times were on racing’s biggest stage, the Triple Crown races. In the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes Journalism had the advantage heading into the stretch run. Both times Sovereignty unleashed his powerful closing move and beat Journalism, first by 1 1/2 lengths in the Derby and then by three lengths in the Belmont.
The Oaklawn Handicap will be run at nine furlongs, which is shorter than the Triple Crown races. At that distance Journalism won twice in the Santa Anita Derby and the Haskell while Sovereignty won the Jim Dandy (G2) but lost in the Florida Derby (G1).
The odds for Sovereignty and Journalism in the Oaklawn Handicap could be closer at post time than the 4-5 and 5-2 morning line odds. Sovereignty should go off as the favorite, however Journalism was the betting choice seven races in a row leading up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic where he was 9-2.
These were the top two 3-year-olds in the country last year and they both had outstanding campaigns. Based on what happened last year Sovereignty is the horse to beat. Journalism might be able to turn the tables on the reigning Horse of the Year on Saturday but until that happens Sovereignty has the advantage. In the Oaklawn Handicap, Sovereignty has to be the top pick.