No, really: This is final Kentucky Derby Final Fractions Theory

We mean it this time. This is the final Final Fractions Theory report ahead of Kentucky Derby 2022.

First, the conclusion. Epicenter, Messier and Taiba are the only three horses in the final field of 20 – plus two also-eligibles – who checked all the boxes to meet the winning criteria.

Like a game of “Jeopardy,” that was the answer. Asking the proper questions takes some rebuilding of the case for those three horses.

Click here for free Brisnet past performances for the Derby.

For the uninitiated – including anyone who did not see the April 12 and April 27 versions of this story – the Final Fractions Theory applies the closing splits from a horse’s last prep race to see if they will be a success stretching to the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby.

Inspired by an idea from trainer Phil Thomas, turf publicist Jennie Rees developed the theory in the years when she worked at the Louisville Courier Journal.

The theory asks whether a horse raced the last furlong of his final prep in 13 seconds or less – or the last three furlongs in 38 or less. In 27 of the last 31 springtime renewals of the Derby, the winning horse did at least one of those two things.

That was all fine and good in the days when everyone raced 1 1/8 miles in that last go-round before the Derby. But now horses may go 1 3/16 miles or, worse for getting a good-sized sample, 1 1/16. That was the length of the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland, so there is extrapolation and dubious guesswork involved with Tawny Port and Ethereal Road.

When examining the current field of 20, the list of horses who checked one of the two Final Fractions Theory boxes included these 11 (from the inside out in the post-position draw): Mo Donegal, Epicenter, Smile Happy, Messier, Tiz the Bomb, Zandon, Pioneer of Medina, Taiba, Barber Road, Tawny Port and Zozos. The two also-eligibles – Rich Strike and Rattle N Roll – also made it.

Just to account for the asterisks, the Louisiana Derby (G2) and the UAE Derby (G2) required mathematical reductions of the listed final fractions, because they were 1 3/16 miles. The Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) got a footnote because it is run on a synthetic track, which worked out 11 years ago when Animal Kingdom ran there and then won the Derby.

Animal Kingdom, by the way, had been the last Derby winner to defy the Final Fractions Theory until last year, when disqualified first-place finisher Medina Spirit and promoted winner Mandaloun both were exceptions to the trend.

To boil down the list to something more manageable, three other criteria were added to the Final Fractions Theory.

In the last eight years, according to Brisnet, only horses with Quirin Speed Points designations of E (early) or E/P (early presser) – meaning on or near the early lead – finished first in the Derby. That narrowed the original list of 11 to five – Epicenter, Messier, Pioneer of Medina, Taiba and Zozos.

A previous best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95, according to Daily Racing Form, fit the profile of 27 of the last 30 Derby winners as declared on race day. The same could be said for a Brisnet Speed Rating of at least 100, which applied to 18 of the last 22 cashable Derby winners.

After weighing all the criteria – and correcting the conclusion that was shown before the following chart in the April 27 version of this story – only Epicenter, Messier and Taiba remained, as shown on this chart:

Barring the repeat of something like a stewards disqualification, a new pandemic or a positive drug test, this list may hold – at least unless more human error is discovered.