No longer a big 4: How surprises have upended Ky. Derby odds
Wasn’t it just two weeks ago when it looked like the Kentucky Derby had boiled down to a big four? If only the reality of an injury and an upset loss had not gotten in the way.
With Life Is Good recovering from surgery and Greatest Honour absorbing defeat Saturday in the Florida Derby (G1), undefeated Essential Quality became the new Kentucky Derby favorite – even though he has not set foot in a starting gate in the last month.
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It was not just in Las Vegas, where Essential Quality shortened to a best price of 4-1 (actually plus-415). He also emerged as the 4-1 (plus-410) favorite in the final pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager conducted during the weekend by Churchill Downs.
That does not mean bettors were not consumed by the usual recency bias baked into the Derby trail. With his Florida Derby triumph, Known Agenda shortened from 28-1 to 10-1 in Nevada, making him the third choice behind Concert Tour (5-1), last seen winning the Rebel (G2) more than two weeks ago.
Because he was not one of the individual choices in the KDFW, Known Agenda also drove betting on the mutuel field of “all other 3-year-olds,” sending it from 15-1 before the Florida Derby to closing odds of 5-1.
So instead of fresh momentum carrying four standout colts into the final month before the Derby, two rested horses have separated themselves from the rest of the dozen atop the Las Vegas futures.
4-1 Essential Quality
5-1 Concert Tour
10-1 Known Agenda
12-1 Hot Rod Charlie
15-1 Greatest Honour
22-1 Prevalence
25-1 Medina Spirit
28-1 Risk Taking
35-1 Mandaloun
35-1 Midnight Bourbon
35-1 Rebel’s Romance
35-1 Rock Your World
Even with precious little time left, five horses currently on the boards in Las Vegas were added by Circa Sports and/or William Hill in the last week.
Panadol (75-1 Circa). This $180,000 Flatter colt bred in New York and based in Dubai finished second Saturday in the UAE Derby (G2), his first loss after two Meydan wins christened his career. The 40 qualifying points he earned might be enough to qualify him for Kentucky. The bigger question coming out of the race, though, was whether Middle East connections would pay the $6,000 due Monday to nominate him for the Triple Crown.
Triple Tap (80-1 Circa). A homebred from Jane Lyon’s Summer Wind Farm in Kentucky, this Tapit colt became the latest Bob Baffert debutant to make an eye-catching first impression. As the 1-5 favorite in a field of four, he won by 4 1/4 lengths March 13 at Santa Anita and was given a Beyer Speed Figure of 83. Baffert said after the race, “we don’t want to rush him.” A bet on Triple Tap to win the Derby, then, might be taking a long-shot chance he would be brought back by April 10 for one of the last four major preps.
Defunded (28-1 Circa, 90-1 William Hill). The Bafferts just keep coming. The $210,000 Dialed In colt came back from nearly seven months off to break his maiden as the 8-1 fourth choice in a six-furlong sprint March 6 at Santa Anita. Baffert said the deep closer could be entered for Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby (G1), from which the winner and possibly the runner-up get invitations to Churchill Downs. It would be a familiar trip for owners Karl Watson, Mike Pegram and Paul Weitman. Together they saw Lookin At Lucky finish a troubled sixth in the 2010 Kentucky Derby. On his own, Pegram and Baffert won the 1998 Derby with Real Quiet.
Sainthood (75-1 Circa, 125-1 William Hill). Still only a maiden winner, his second-place finish in Saturday’s Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) gave him 40 points, which could be the cut line to run for the roses. Even if he did qualify, connections were not certain they would send the Mshawish colt to the Derby. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Sainthood went through the sales ring three times as a yearling before being bought for $62,000 by WinStar and CHC (think Life Is Good and Justify).
Hockey Dad (225-1 Circa). Trained by Doug O’Neill, this Paul Reddam homebred had won three in a row at Santa Anita before finishing third Saturday in the Jeff Ruby. With so many major preps still left, this Nyquist colt probably does not have enough points to make it to Louisville without a lot of dropouts ahead of him. What’s more, he had not yet been nominated for the Triple Crown.
These are the 69 horses left in the Nevada pools, shown with their Kentucky Derby futures odds:
Circa WH
200-1 Alain Barows
200-1 Barraza
210-1 Bezos
100-1 50-1 Brooklyn Strong
65-1 85-1 Caddo River
150-1 150-1 Candy Man Rocket
200-1 150-1 Capo Kane
150-1 Cazadero
5-1 5-1 Concert Tour
70-1 150-1 Crowded Trade
28-1 90-1 Defunded
300-1 Democracy
175-1 Drain the Clock
50-1 60-1 Dream Shake
300-1 Du Jour
55-1 150-1 Dynamic One
4-1 7-2 Essential Quality
100-1 Freedom Fighter
100-1 125-1 Get Her Number
150-1 Ghazaaly
6-1 15-1 Greatest Honour
41-1 55-1 Helium
80-1 30-1 Hidden Stash
80-1 Highland Avenue
50-1 26-1 Highly Motivated
225-1 Hockey Dad
10-1 12-1 Hot Rod Charlie
45-1 25-1 Hozier
200-1 150-1 Hush of a Storm
75-1 Jackie’s Warrior
150-1 Jaxon Traveler
60-1 35-1 Keepmeinmind
10-1 7-1 Known Agenda
60-1 100-1 Like the King
35-1 30-1 Mandaloun
25-1 12-1 Medina Spirit
35-1 24-1 Midnight Bourbon
300-1 Moonlite Strike
300-1 Mr. Impossible
225-1 New Treasure
125-1 110-1 Nicky the Vest
70-1 Nova Rags
65-1 125-1 O Besos
200-1 150-1 Overtook
75-1 Panadol
150-1 Papetu
125-1 150-1 Parnelli
300-1 Petruchio
22-1 14-1 Prevalence
55-1 45-1 Proxy
35-1 Rebel’s Romance
25-1 28-1 Risk Taking
25-1 35-1 Rock Your World
50-1 75-1 Roman Centurian
60-1 65-1 Rombauer
75-1 125-1 Sainthood
300-1 200-1 Sittin On Go
22-1 60-1 Soup and Sandwich
60-1 Spielberg
300-1 250-1 Super Stock
125-1 Swiftsure
75-1 75-1 The Great One
300-1 Therideofalifetime
80-1 Triple Tap
95-1 Untreated
52-1 75-1 Weyburn
125-1 Whiskey Double
300-1 Willy Boi
300-1 Wipe the Slate