New York fair odds: The most likely winner of the weekend

There will be some short prices over the next two days at Saratoga, but the only one who figures to actually come close to offering value on that short price is She Feels Pretty in the Grade 1 New York Stakes on Friday.

She Feels Pretty at 3-5 is one of 12 horses this weekend at Saratoga at 6-5 or less on David Aragona's morning line and is the second-lowest price behind Good Cheer at 2-5 in the Acorn Stakes.

Unlike the other 11 horses, though, She Feels Pretty would offer value at her morning line. My fair odds on her in this spot are 1-2. In other words, I think she wins this race two-thirds, or 66.7 percent, of the time. So getting paid on it happening 62.5 percent of the time, at 3-5, would be a slight overlay.

Granted it is hard to get excited about winning a buck-twenty for a deuce or even $30 on $50. So do any of She Feels Pretty's seven rivals figure to get ignored? Based on the morning line, either Forever After All or Beach Bomb could be worth being the underneath key, and if Gimme a Nother is really the second choice then she is the toss from vertical wagers.

She Feels Pretty has been dominant since winning the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) to start a three-race win streak all at 1 1/8 miles or beyond by a combined 10 3/4 lengths. She has sat directly behind decent paces in all three of those efforts and kicked on brilliantly under John Velazquez. 

Gimme a Nother chased She Feels Pretty home last out in the Modesty (G3) on Kentucky Oaks day five weeks ago at Churchill Downs, and more of the same seems likely here. She received five pounds from She Feels Pretty that day, but it's equal weights here.

Forever After All and Beach Bomb both might prefer farther but have opposite running styles that could allow one or both of them to close or hang on, respectively, for a piece. Forever After All probably will have too much to do to beat the big chalk, but she'll be running late and gets in lighter than most. Beach Bomb has an intriguing forward style that could play better shortening up a bit, and aggressive rider Luis Saez returns to the saddle.

She Feels Pretty is a stone-cold single for me in any multi-race wager, including trying to beat Good Cheer in the preceding Acorn (G1). If either Forever After All or Beach Bomb or both are fourth choice or higher, then I will key them underneath She Feels Pretty.