Nassau fair odds: Use this long shot with well-known favorite

Caitlinhergrtness made a triumphant return to the races four weeks ago when winning the Belle Mahony Stakes in her 4-year-old debut. It was the type of performance off a a six-month layoff that makes you wonder what is in store for last year's King's Plate winner.

If she repeats that performance returning to turf, then she is borderline invincible in Saturday's Grade 2 Nassau at Woodbine. But the one-turn mile on turf is not quite two turns on synthetic, which have been her best races to date. Still, my 8-5 fair odds versus the 2-1 morning line make her a solid play and strong single to close out the all-graded stakes Pick 4 on the 10-race card, which has five graded stakes, two of them potential King's Plate preps.

The Nassau attracted a field of 12, another reason to be hopeful of getting our fair price on Caitlinhergrtness, but even if she teeters around even money, the next logical choices do not figure to offer much value, which means a longer price could be worth a gamble.

That horse for me is Crevalle d'Oro, who won at this course and distance last out off a seven-week layoff shipping north for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. This is a big step up in class for the Constitution filly looking for her first stakes win. But that was a breakthrough performance last out, and she figures to get similar pace to close into.

Sweet Rebecca is the morning-line second choice at 3-1, and I am going to try to beat her out of the number. She has pressed and faded in other graded stakes and figures to get a similar trip here with plenty of speed upfront to force the issue. 

I will be looking to single Caitlinhergrtness on my primary multi-race plays with plans to key her with Crevalle d'Oro in the exotics in the Nassau itself.