Fair odds: Star power starts Synthetic Championships

Considering I'd have made Ciatlinhergrtness my best bet of the Breeders' Cup if her connections had tried the Distaff, it should come as no surprise that I think she is the most likely winner not only of the My Charmer Stakes but also all of the four-race synthetic championships on Saturday at Turfway Park.

A review of Caitlinhergrtness's Ragozin Sheet shows a filly consistently faster on synthetic than turf. Indeed, her marquee win came on the Tapeta surface in the King's Plate last year, and she is overall 3-for-7 with three additional second-place finishes on synthetic, with all those wins coming in stakes, versus just 1-for-4 on turf with no stakes wins.

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Trainer Kevin Attard also tabbed Flavien Prat for a return engagement on the Omaha Beach filly. He won the Ontario Matron Stakes in his lone start with her on synthetic, and he rode her to a fifth-place finish in the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor Stakes on turf on this year's King's Plate undercard.

Prat has ridden only once before at Turfway, going 2-for-4 on Feb. 21 this year. Overall on synthetic the last 10 years, Prat is 8-for-37 with a -2.8 percent Horse Racing Nation Impact and -34 percent ROI. HRN Impact measures expected wins based on percentage of the win pool against actual wins. ROI measures flat-bet profit.

All that is to say there is little to suggest Caitlinhergrtness won't fire her best shot against what I view as 10 overmatched rivals. So the question, then, is in which pools is she worth a bet? She is likely to be odds-on here, so that is an underlay versus my 6-5 fair odds. As race 6 of the 10-race card, there is not a lot of multi-race opportunity either, as the My Charmer is not a part of either Pick 4 on the day and is involved onnly in the late Pick 5 plus Pick 3s that begin in races 4, 5, and 6.

I'm hoping a filly such as Literate with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for trainer Brad Cox attracts money and at least makes Caitlinhergrtness viable as a Pick 5 single. Vertically, I will try to beat Literate out of the number and am intrigued by She's Lookin Lucky in her synthetic debut for trainer Matt Shirer going to Luan Machado. She's Lookin Lucky's siblings are 10-for-45 and sire Lookin At Lucky is 15% winners with his synthetic runners, a slight uptick from 14% on dirt and 12% on turf.

Queens Command and Landed are two other potential uses underneath if the public sends them off at overlaid odds. The former has been going longer, and her closing kick could be sharpened by fast fractions at this middle distance. If the fractions aren't fast, then Landed is a front-end threat in her synthetic debut.