Must-use trend for selecting the 2022 Kentucky Derby winner
Plenty of tools and trends are available to handicappers looking to find the Kentucky Derby winner, but one trend has stood above the rest in the last 30 years and deserves a closer look.
Since 1992, 27 of 30 (90 percent) of Kentucky Derby winners have entered the race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. This number would be 28 out of 30 if Maximum Security had not been disqualified in the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Ten horses fell into this category last year. The first six horses to cross the wire in the 2021 Derby – Medina Spirit, Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie, Essential Quality, O Besos and Midnight Bourbon – were among those 10.
| Horse | Top Beyer | Top Brisnet |
|---|---|---|
| Messier | 103 | 108 |
| Taiba | 103 | 111 |
| Epicenter | 102 | 101 |
| Zandon | 98 | 103 |
| Zozos | 98 | 98 |
| White Abarrio | 97 | 97 |
| Mo Donegal | 96 | 111 |
| Pioneer of Medina | 96 | 96 |
| Simplification | 96 | 103 |
| Early Voting | 96 | 111 |
| Smile Happy | 94 | 101 |
| Tiz the Bomb | 94 | 101 |
| Charge It | 93 | 98 |
| Cyberknife | 92 | 94 |
| Tawny Port | 90 | 99 |
| Classic Causeway | 90 | 99 |
| Barber Road | 88 | 93 |
| Un Ojo | 84 | 92 |
| Happy Jack | 83 | 97 |
Ten of the 19 North American horses currently being considered for the Kentucky Derby have posted a Beyer of at least 95. From highest to lowest, they are: Messier, Taiba, Epicenter, Zandon, Zozos, White Abarrio, Mo Donegal, Pioneer of Medina, Simplification and Early Voting.
Smile Happy, Charge It and Cyberknife are among those who are going against this trend in their quest for Derby glory.
Brisnet Speed Ratings also have been a strong indicator of Derby success. 19 of the last 22 (86.4 percent) Kentucky Derby winners had a BRIS Speed Rating of at least 100 before the race.
Nine contenders have recorded a best BRIS of at least 100: Messier, Taiba, Epicenter, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Simplification, Early Voting, Smile Happy and Tiz the Bomb.
White Abarrio and Zozos are among those who do not meet this criteria.
This leaves Messier, Taiba, Epicenter, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Simplification and Early Voting as the only horses who fall into both categories.
If these strong trends are to be trusted, then the winner of the 2022 Kentucky Derby will come from this group of seven.