Muniz fair odds: Can Tiz the Bomb upset Atone? Yes.

The Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Classic has a storied recent history of top horses shipping to Fair Grounds to win the top turf race of the meeting: Bricks and Mortar in 2019 and Colonel Liam in 2021 both parlayed Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) success into Muniz glory. 

Atone will attempt that same double, but standing (running?) in his way is Two Emmys, the winner of last year's Muniz as well as the local prep this year. Two Emmys is no stranger to upsetting the East Coast's top horses, having defeated Domestic Spending in the 2021 Mr. D. Stakes, formerly and once again the Arlington Million.

Although I recognize these two as the most likely winners of the Muniz, which Horse Racing Nation presents, I do think both will be overbet. Atone's Pegasus World Cup Turf was the fastest race anyone in this field has run, based on Ragozin figures, but he ran a similar figure in his seasonal debut last year and took a big step back. That bothers me at a short price against this group.

Two Emmys makes sense given the local wins, and I like that he is forwardly placed. But as I describe in this thread using Brisnet data, the presence of Atone and Spooky Channel should set things up for a horse coming from off the pace.

Given his 10-1 morning line, I expect to get the right price to try Tiz the Bomb one more time here in the Muniz.

The Muniz is the middle leg of the all-stakes Pick 5 on the Louisiana Derby day card on Saturday at Fair Grounds. National Handicapping Championship winner Michael Beychok discussed the sequence with yours truly in the video below.