Fair odds: Brown pair is heavy hand in Fair Grounds turf tilt

Chad Brown is most known for his East Coast prowess, but the Eclipse Award-winning trainer is no stranger to shipping to Louisiana for a score. He won the marquee turf race at Fair Grounds race three times in the last 13 years in just seven attempts with 10 starters.

He is odds-on to win his fourth Grade 2 Muniz Memorial presented by Horse Racing Nation on Saturday at Fair Grounds by virtue of Spirit of St Louis and Redistricting having a 51.1 percent chance of winning between the two of them, with Spirit of St Louis at 2-1 and Redistricting at 9-2 on my fair odds.

The struggle is which of those two, if either, will be worth a play. I could see either going below my fair odds. I do like Spirit of St Louis as the more likely winner after his victory in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) eight weeks ago. Meanwhile, it's been 16 weeks since Redistricting last ran when a fast-closing second at 3-2 in the Seabiscuit (G2) at Del Mar. That one is getting six pounds from his uncoupled stablemate, though, and that was the primary reason I didn't have Redistricting at 5-1 or 6-1 versus Spirit of St Louis at 9-5.

Among the next tier of expected prices, Brilliant Berti returns off a 21-week layoff, but I am more forgiving of that since he will be a much bigger price than either of the Brown pair. Brilliant Berti came from off the pace in each of his last two wins but was within striking distance by mid-stretch. Those are bold moves, and a return to that form off the layoff makes him dangerous here at a potentially square price.

Overall, this is a very competitive race. Having no horse over 100-1 in a 12-horse race with clear favorites is actually a pretty tight line.