Monomoy Girl fair odds: Can the champion catch the speed?

Trainer Brad Cox entered Belmont Stakes week with a pair of undefeated fillies for breeder Godolphin, and while Kentucky Oaks winner Good Cheer ended her unbeaten streak in the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes last week, champion Immersive will look to run her record to a perfect five-for-five in the Monomoy Girl Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Of course with undefeated records and hardware comes money, and Immersive figures to get bet down in her three-year-old debut, but there is still opportunity lurking in the 1 1/16-mile race for fillies.

Take Charge Milady figures to be second choice based on her class this season, as she won the Martha Washington Stakes in January and finished second to La Cara in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes. Neither Take Charge Milady nor La Cara were any match for Good Cheer in the Kentucky Oaks, but La Cara did rebound to win the Acorn.

My issue with Take Charge Milady in this spot, is she figures to have a lot to do behind two solid front-running types and Immersive, who almost certainly will get the jump on Take Charge Milady.

Those frontrunners are Anna's Promise and Running Away. The former was in the Oaks as well and hung around to finish fifth after pressing the pace. The latter has done her best running when on the lead early, and was no match for La Cara in the Ashland. 

The value in this race is likely to come from one of these two, especially Running Away at a likely higher price, sticking around to complete the exacta and maybe winning it.

Immersive's undefeated championship season culminating in a Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies score obviously merits a ton of respect, but the company lines from last year should not instill fear in those willing to oppose her.