Mister D. analysis: Can anyone beat Domestic Spending?

Although 10 horses are entered in the Grade 1, $600,000 Mister D. Stakes at Arlington Park on Saturday, there are two specific runners that stand out – Domestic Spending and Armory. The former is the leading turf router on this continent, while the latter brings consistent form at a high level from Europe.

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Is there a longshot alternative to those two horses as well? Yes. To find out who the possible upset option is, read the horse-by-horse analysis below. 

The Mister D is carded as race 9 with a post time of 7:13 p.m. EDT.

1. Strong Tide, 30-1 (English Channel – Michael Lauer/Julio Felix – 24: 7-3-1 - $382,121): After a sixth-place finish in the Jonathan B. Schuster Stakes at Indiana Grand, it is hard to take this 4-year-old English Channel colt seriously in a Grade 1 race. To give him some credit, he did finish third in the Louisville Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs by only two lengths to Arklow about three months ago. The flop in the Belmont Gold Cup two starts ago is also forgivable because of the unusual two-mile distance. Overall though, he appears overmatched in this spot. Toss.

2. Glynn County, 12-1 (Kitten’s Joy – Michael Maker/Julien Leparoux – 13: 4-1-1 - $245,928): Back in April, this son of Kitten’s Joy won a turf allowance at Keeneland by 1 ¼ lengths. Two starts ago, he also won an optional claiming race at Churchill Downs by two lengths. On turf, those margins are nothing to sneeze at. Because of the nature of turf racing, winning by a length or two is meaningful. In the more recent United Nations Stakes (G1) at Monmouth, he only made a mild move for fifth, losing by 3 ¾ lengths to the runaway winner Tribhuvan. Despite the mild United Nations effort, it is not wise to ignore trainer Michael Maker these days, especially on turf. Maybe there is a spot for Glynn County in the bottom slots. Use underneath.

3. Domestic Spending, 1-1 (Kingman – Chad Brown/Flavien Prat – 7: 6-0-1 - $1,314,500): Here is the best turf router based in North America. He owns a remarkable six wins in seven starts. Four of those wins include the Saratoga Derby and Hollywood Derby (G1) last year, plus the Turf Classic (G1) and Manhattan Stakes (G1) in his current campaign for trainer Chad Brown. In other words, he carries a four-race win streak with this race, with the last three wins coming in Grade 1 races. Bettors will not receive an attractive price, but given the consistency and recent streak of Grade 1 wins, there is an argument he remains fair value around even money. He also catches a somewhat soft edition of this race as well, with the two European invaders the main threat to another win on his resume. With that said, if one of those Europeans offered the right price, it might be tempting to see if Domestic Spending can finally lose a race. Win contender. 

4. Two Emmys, 20-1 (English Channel – Hugh Robertson/James Graham – 15: 3-7-0 - $192,908): His recent consistency is admirable. In his three most recent starts, Two Emmys ran second in the Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes (G2), a local optional claiming race and the Arlington Stakes (G3) last month on this course. In the Muniz Memorial, it is notable that he only lost to Colonial Liam by 1 ½ lengths after setting the early pace. As stated above though, one or two lengths does mean more in turf racing because horses do not separate from the pack as easily on grass. Overall, he is just not classy enough to take him seriously in this spot. He is only a pace presence and faces pressure from the outside speed Big Dreaming. Toss.

5. Zulu Alpha, 6-1 (Malibu Moon – Chad Brown/Luis Saez – 36: 12-5-6 - $2,263,084): What happened to this runner in the Arlington Stakes (G3)? Zulu Alpha ran fifth as the favorite with no real excuse. Last year, Zulu Alpha began his campaign by winning the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, before also winning the Mac Diarmida Stakes (G2) and finishing second in the Pan American Stakes (G2). After the Pan American, Zulu Alpha also took the Elkhorn Stakes (G2) and then finished third in the Kentucky Turf Cup (G3) to close out a successful campaign. Given the flat return in the Arlington Stakes though, this writer chooses a “wait and see” approach in terms of picking up another big win. For now, he might fit in the bottom slots of vertical wagers. Use underneath.

6. Another Mystery, 50-1 (Temple City – Chris Block/Jose Lopez – 18: 4-2-3 - $191,620): In Another Mystery’s three most recent starts, he was eighth in the Hollywood Turf Cup (G2) last November, third in the Douglas Park Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs a few months ago and third by 4 ¼ lengths in the local Arlington Stakes. As written above, a few lengths on turf is more significant than on dirt, which means Bizzee Channel and Two Emmys dominated the field. Yet, neither Bizzee Channel or Two Emmy are selections in this analysis, nor is Another Mystery. Toss.

7. Space Traveller, 12-1 (Bated Breath – Richard Fahey/Daniel Tudhope – 19: 5-2-2 - $339,282): When not factoring in odds and value, this is the less appealing European invader. The lack of longer route races stands out immediately, as the connections mainly run this horse in one-mile races. In fact, Space Traveller was actually seen in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Mile, where he ran eighth and 5 ¼ lengths behind the winner Uni. Last year, Space Traveller was sixth in the Queen Anne Stakes (G1) in his only 2020 start. This year, he won a listed stakes in June, ran eighth in the Summer Mile Stakes (G2) and sixth in the Sussex Stakes (G1). Betting this European requires faith that he will handle the 1 ¼ miles in his first attempt after 19 races, and that his form will move forward with the change in environment. The common notion is that even average European turf horses can compete at the Grade 1 level over here. Even with his Breeders’ Cup failure and lack of 10-furlong races on record, maybe he deserves one more chance at an attractive price. Live longshot.

8. Bizzee Channel, 20-1 (English Channel – Larry Rivelli/Jareth Loveberry – 20: 5-6-3 - $309,447): To start off by giving this horse credit, he is on a winning streak after taking a local optional claiming race on June 19 and winning the Arlington Stakes last month. In the Arlington, he only beat Two Emmys by a neck, but the pair had four lengths on the third-place finisher Another Mystery. The separation on the rest of the field works as a good sign, although the race was only a Grade 3 event and he now he faces Domestic Spending and the Europeans. Even with the solid recent form, this horse is just not fast enough to win a Grade 1 race right now. Toss.

9. Armory, 7/2 (Galileo – Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore – 15: 5-3-4 - $1,202,540): Here is a European used to facing quality horses overseas. Last year, Armory finished fourth to Magical in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (G1) and third to the same talented opponent in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1). He ended his 2020 campaign with a second-place finish in the Cox Plate (G1) over in Australia. This year, Armory won the Huxley Stakes (G2), before finishing third in the Princes of Wales’s Stakes (G1) at Royal Ascot to the highly respected filly Love and fourth in the Bangkok Stakes (G2). The only major American opponent for Armory in this spot is Domestic Spending, and Armory figures to offer at least some value compared to him. Armory also clearly loves to travel and trainer Aidan O’Brien won the Arlington Million version of this race in 2011 with Cape Blanco and 2005 with Powerscourt. Jockey Ryan Moore knows how to get the win on this soil, as he swept both the Belmont Oaks and Belmont Derby Invitational. This is the top selection. The pick.

10. Big Dreaming, 30-1 (Declaration of War – Wayne Catalano/Adam Beschizza – 8: 4-2-1 - $293,525): All three of his 2021 races came in optional claiming races. In his first two starts this year, he ran sixth and third at Churchill Downs, but he finally put it all together to win at Ellis Park last month to win a one-mile turf race while setting a contested pace. His sixth-place finish in the April optional claiming race on Churchill Downs turf is forgivable because jockey Florent Geroux mistakenly tried to restrain him. Big Dreaming is the kind of horse who needs to run freely, and in the right kind of race he will fight to retain his lead if let go. However, he faces the best North American turf router in this spot, plus two European shippers who look like contenders on paper. Is there not a more gradual path to the Grade 1 level? There is talent in this horse, but he is probably overmatched for now. Maybe consider him for a bottom slot in superfecta wagers. Use underneath.

Conclusion:

Domestic Spending is obviously the best American runner in this race, but he also meets two interesting European shippers in Armory and Space Traveller.

All three horses are usable in multi-race wagers, although Space Traveller fits more as a B option for those who use the A-B-C-X method. At 7/2 or higher, consider Armory for a win and place bet. At 10-1 or higher, consider Space Traveller for a win and place bet.