Mister D. Stakes 2021: Odds, PPs, picks, analysis

A race that once made history as the nation’s richest runs for what could be the final time Saturday.

Domestic Spending is the 6-5 morning-line favorite for the Grade 1, $600,000 Mister D. Stakes at Arlington Park. Post time for an event formerly known as the Arlington Million is 7:13 p.m. EDT, with TVG bringing on-site coverage.

The Mister D. at 1¼ miles on the turf is the headlining event for a card still billed as Million Day. The $400,000 Beverly D. Stakes (G1) at 1 3/16 miles for fillies and mares and the $300,000 Bruce D. Stakes (G1) for 3-year-olds going one mile are also featured.

Churchill Downs, Inc., which owns Arlington Park, is selling the property. CDI did not apply for 2022 race dates, meaning live racing is unlikely to occur next year at the historic track in suburban Chicago.

There is hope yet that racing could return to Arlington Park, even if it does not take place in 2022. Horsemen have made two bids to buy the property and save it as a racing facility, although their competition in that bidding includes the NFL’s Chicago Bears.

Efforts to save racing at Arlington Park are a nod to the facility’s history. The track offered the sport’s first $1 million purse in 1981 when it created the Arlington Million, and then saw it claimed by legendary runner John Henry.

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Eclipse Award champions to win the Arlington Million include John Henry (1981, 1984), Estrapade (1986), Paradise Creek (1994), Gio Ponti (2009) and, in its most recent edition, Bricks and Mortar (2019).

The Mister D. Stakes could also play a role toward determining a 2021 Eclipse.

Domestic Spending leads the Older Turf Male division after wins on the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes undercards in the Turf Classic Stakes (G1) and Manhattan Stakes (G1), respectively. The 4-year-old Kingman gelding looks for a third win in as many 2021 starts, and fifth straight overall, Saturday at Arlington Park.

Chad Brown has won this event four times, including each year from 2017-19. He trains Domestic Spending, who retains the services of leading California jockey Flavien Prat.

Second on the morning line at 9-2 is Armory, a European Group 2 winner for trainer Aidan O’Brien. He is one of two international shippers in the field along with Space Traveler (20-1), although the U.S.-based Brendan Walsh will serve Saturday as that one’s trainer of record.

Larry Rivelli trainee Bizzee Channel (6-1) won the local prep for this event, last month’s Arlington Stakes (G3). Trainer Mike Maker’s Zulu Alpha (8-1) is one of only two starters in this field with a Grade 1 win on his resume thanks to a 2020 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational score.

Here is a look at the field for the 2021 Mister D. Stakes (trainer and jockey in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Strong Tide (Michael Lauer, Julio Felix), 15-1

2. Glynn County (Mike Maker, Julien Leparoux), 12-1

3. Domestic Spending (Chad Brown, Flavien Prat), 6-5

4. Two Emmys (Hugh Robertson, James Graham), 10-1

5. Zulu Alpha (Mike Maker, Luis Saez), 8-1

6. Another Mystery (Chris Block, Jose Lopez), 20-1

7. Space Traveler (Brendan Walsh, Daniel Tudhope), 20-1

8. Bizzee Channel (Larry Rivelli, Jareth Loveberry), 6-1

9. Armory (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore), 9-2

10. Big Dreaming (Wayne Catalano, Adam Beschizza), SCR

Of the nine remaining starters in the Mister D. Stakes field, TimeformUS’ pace projections show Bizzee Channel going out to a lead under jockey Jareth Loveberry. Domestic Spending is among the runners expected to sit back during the early stages.

For more information on Arlington’s Mister D. and Beverly D., plus Saratoga’s Fourstardave Handicap (G1), visit Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page.

Mister D. links

Can anyone beat Domestic Spending on Saturday in the Mister D. Stakes? He takes the best form into this race of any of the American runners.

Reinier Macatangay offers analysis for both the Mister D. Stakes and the Beverly D. Stakes. See why he thinks the imports look formidable in both races.

Domestic Spending is among the turf standouts on J. Keeler Johnson’s watch list running this weekend.

This week’s episode of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod features interviews with Arlington leading trainer Larry Rivelli and leading jockey Jareth Loveberry, plus more Million Day coverage.

Other Saturday stakes

Courtesy of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, here is a look at other graded stakes action taking place Saturday across the U.S. All times are EDT.

5:12 p.m. – $100,000 Pucker Up Stakes (G3), Arlington Park, TVG

Eight 3-year-old fillies have been entered for Saturday’s Pucker Up going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. Let It Ride Stables’ Shesa Mystery has won two of four starts and comes into the race off a second-place finish in the Iowa Oaks (G3) at Prairie Meadows on July 2. Trained by Jeff Hiles, Shesa Mystery will be ridden by Edgar Morales from post 6. Heider Family Stables’ Flown was in full flight down the stretch of the black type, 1 1/16-mile Hatoof Stakes at Arlington on July 17, but could not catch Core Values at the wire, finishing a head back in second as the 1-2 favorite. Trained by Brendan Walsh, and ridden from post 4 by Adam Beschizza, Flown finished third, beaten a length, in the Regret (G3) at Churchill Downs on May 29. Michael Dubb, Madaket Stables and Robert LaPenta’s Shantisara finished second in the black type Boiling Springs Stakes at Monmouth Park on June 26 in her first start for trainer Chad Brown, after five races in France. Flavien Prat will ride from post 3.

5:39 p.m. – $200,000 Saratoga Special (G2), Saratoga, FS2

First run in 1901, Saturday’s Saratoga Special drew a dozen 2-year-olds going 6½ furlongs. Michael Dubb and Michael J. Caruso’s Doctor Jeff is the 2-1 morning line favorite off a front-running 2¼-length maiden victory July 10 at Belmont Park. Trained by Rudy Rodriguez, Doctor Jeff will be ridden by Joel Rosario from post 8. Rosario has a slight lead over Irad Ortiz Jr. in total purses won by North American jockeys this year with more than $16.1 million going into Friday’s races. He also leads all riders with 31 graded staked wins. Newly inducted Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver. For the Saratoga Special, Pletcher has entered Phoenix Thoroughbred III’s Double Thunder, a gray son of Super Saver who has won both his starts. After breaking his maiden at Monmouth in June, Double Thunder drew off to a 4¾-length victory in the six-furlong Bashford Manor (G3) at Churchill Downs on June 26. John Velazquez will ride from post 7. Mark Detampel, Qatar Racing and Tim Banker’s Nakatomi is back on American soil after an eighth-place finish in the Norfolk Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot in June. Trained by Wesley Ward and ridden by Javier Castellano from post 1, Nakatomi broke his maiden at Keeneland on April 14. 

5:49 p.m. – $400,000 Beverly D. Stakes (G1), Arlington Park, TVG

Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith and Westerburg’s 3-year-old Santa Barbara will take on six older fillies and mares in the 1 3/16-mile Beverly D. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Santa Barbara was stuck behind a wall of horses and running out of ground in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) on July 10 but managed to find room in deep stretch under jockey Ryan Moore to win by a half-length. Moore has the mount again on the bay daughter of Camelot, breaking from post 4. Santa Barbara should find a formidable foe in Alex G. Campbell Jr.’s homebred Mean Mary. A winner seven times in 11 starts for trainer Graham Motion, the 5-year-old Mean Mary is 2-for-2 this year, taking the Gallorette Stakes (G3) at Pimlico on May 16 and the New York Stakes (G2) at Belmont on June 4. Luis Saez rides the 9-5 morning line favorite from post 2. Trainer Chad Brown puts his extraordinary streak of five consecutive wins in this race on the line with Peter Brant’s 4-year-old filly Lemista. A four-time winner in Ireland, Lemista is looking for her first win this year after a second-place finish in Belmont’s Beaugay (G3) on May 8, and an eighth-place finish in the Diana Stakes (G1) at Saratoga on July 17. Flavien Prat rides Lemista from post 6.  

6:13 p.m. – $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap (G1), Saratoga, FS2

The Chad Brown-trained duo of 9-5 morning line favorite 6-year-old Raging Bull and the 5-year-old mare Blowout lead eight entered in a very deep Fourstardave at one mile over Saratoga’s inner turf course. The race winner gains a “win-and-you’re-in” berth into the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Owned by Peter Brant, Raging Bull captured the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland in April to notch his seventh career win. In his most recent start, Raging Bull finished second to Oleksandra by a head in the Poker (G3) at Belmont Park on June 20. Raging Bull finished fifth and second, respectively, in the last two editions of the Fourstardave. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides from post 1. Blowout breezed to an eight-length lead at the half-mile mark of the Distaff Turf Mile (G2) at Churchill Downs on May 1 and held on for a half-length win in her seasonal debut. Joel Rosario will break from post 8 aboard Blowout. My Racehorse Stable and Spendthrift Farm’s 6-year-old mare Got Stormy won this race in 2019, defeating Raging Bull by 2½ lengths, and was second in the 2020 Fourstardave. Trained by Hall of Famer Mark Casse, Got Stormy has 11 wins and more than $2.2 million in career earnings. She is 1-for-3 in 2021, taking the Honey Fox (G3) at Gulfstream Park in January. Got Stormy will be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione from post 6. Juddmonte’s Set Piece, trained by Brad Cox, has won his last three races, and came from well off the pace last out to score a half-length victory in the Wise Dan Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs on June 26. Florent Geroux has the mount from post 5. The Bill Mott-trained 5-year-old Casa Creed has won two straight and comes into the race off a Grade 1 victory in Belmont’s six-furlong Jaipur Stakes on June 1. Junior Alvarado will ride from post 4.

Related: Head to Head: Handicapping the 2021 Fourstardave | Fourstardave Handicap 2021: Odds and analysis

6:28 p.m. – $300,000 Bruce D. Stakes (G1), Arlington Park, TVG

In his fourth start, Calumet Farm’s Tango Tango Tango broke his maiden in the listed Arlington Derby on July 17. Trained by Jack Sisterson, Tango Tango Tango is the 2-1 morning line favorite against eight 3-year-olds in the Bruce D. Stakes at one mile on turf. Tango Tango Tango, a son of 2016 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Tourist, will be ridden by Declan Cannon from post 2. Making just his third start, Ashbrook Farm’s Ginsburned won a one-mile maiden special weight July 25 at Ellis Park, coming from off the pace to score by 1¼ lengths. Julien Leparoux has the mount from post 4. Patricia Hope’s King of Miami is 2-for-4 for trainer Larry Rivelli. Winner of the listed Mystic Lake Stakes at Canterbury Park on June 23, King of Miami, a gelded son of American Pharoah, will be ridden by Jareth Loveberry from post 8.