Mint Millions fair odds: Fade the international competition

Ancient Rome brings international experience back to the Grade 3 Mint Millions Stakes on Saturday at Kentucky Downs. He won the race last year and most recently finished third in the Arlington Million (G1), but neither his Brisnet class ratings nor Ragozin Speed Figures in those domestic efforts stack up against this group either.

That alerts me to an opportunity in this race to bet against a horse sure to take money. Ancient Rome is the 5-2 morning-line choice in the field of 11.

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Goliad interests me most, because he has speed and that has done very well so far this meeting. There is other pace in this race, but jockey Flavien Prat should have options from the outside post in this one-turn mile. Goliad won a race here Sunday and got a nice figure. Although another move forward is unlikely on short rest, a repeat makes him a big contender.

Funtastic Again is intriguing off a runner-up finish in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) last out, but he is projected at about half the price as Goliad. Still, a stalk-and-pounce trip seems ideal. Mountain Bear might have been a candidate, but he was not shipped across the Atlantic, according to Daily Racing Form. Jockey Geraldo Corrales is 2-for-3 aboard Funtastic Again with a stakes win.

Emmanuel is the other who interests me in here. Making his first start for trainer Mike Maker, Emmanuel is cutting back to a mile. But this plays longer because of the undulations. And although Maker is having a tough meeting, this horse is a player with the ideal inside draw and likely to be the one running best late if the pace does back up.

This race begins a Pick 5, and I'm keen to use only Emmanuel, Funtastic Again and and Goliad to kick things off. Watching the board, if they're near my fair odds I'll also do a three-horse exacta box. If one is clearly value in the win pool versus my fair odds, then that merits a straight wager as well.