Mineshaft fair odds: Familiar names distract from the value

A trio of horses with wins at Fair Grounds on the 2024 Kentucky Derby Trail all face off against five others in the Grade 3 Mineshaft Stakes on Saturday, and the good news for bettors is they each look like an underlay.

Last year's Louisiana Derby winner and Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Catching Freedom makes his four-year-old debut here, as does Tuscan Sky, who won an entry-level allowance race last year on this Risen Star Stakes day card.

The third is Hall of Fame, who broke his maiden at Fair Grounds before a couple disappointing efforts in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. However, he returned off a 8 1/2-month layoff to win both his next starts, and that win last out in a second-level allowance race came with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, who returns today. That was also his lifetime best race by many lengths according to Ragozin data.

All that said, I have to take a stand against these three. Catching Freedom has been off nearly 8 months, Tuscan Sky is not fast enough and Hall of Fame ran so well last time, I am going to play him to regress given his short price.

The one I am most excited about to upset this krewe is Komorebino Omoide, who made what looked like a winning move in the Louisiana Stakes last out but flattened a bit while getting passed by Hit Show but still holding on gamely for second over Skinner.

Warrior Johny is another I keep going back to. He has some fast races but he has never really popped against this quality of runners. Still, as the likely fifth choice here his best races are just too good to dismiss him.