Fair odds: Favorite carries value in Arlington Million

Now three years removed from its final renewal at Arlington International Racecourse, the Grade 1 Arlington Million will have its second renewal at Colonial Downs on Sunday. Although the previous two editions of the race went to domestic horsemen, this year's race looks to give the race an international flavor again.

Sure, 8-5 morning line favorite Nations Pride has claims to being domestic at this point because he has trained and raced exclusively in North America this year. But his origins are international given Dubai-based Godolphin bred him in Ireland, and he races for Charlie Appleby with stops in Bahrain and Germany on his résumé.

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Nations Pride is a disappointing 0-for-2 this year, but neither was a bad race; he just was not good enough on those days. He should be good enough on Million day. The Ragozin Sheets say Nations Pride is a standout performance-figures-wise, and I am not sure the betting will reflect how much better I think he is than either Integration or Ancient Rome.

Speaking of those two, they will unquestionably be the second and third choices. Of them, I'd think Integration will be more overbet considering the win over this course at 1-20 last out. He is a good horse and can win, but I just don't think he'll offer any value in any bet. 

Ancient Rome is the other in here with the most international flair, given the Kentucky-bred raced in France and England before repatriating to win the Mint Million Stakes last September at Kentucky Downs. He was nowhere at long odds in June at Royal Ascot but improved greatly last out. He has handled the ship here once before, and a similar race here is as good as Integration and better than the rest besides my top pick.

Nations Pride is a strong single for me in the 12 percent takeout Pick 5 with Ancient Rome my only backup. In this race specifically, I'd bet Nations Pride at 3-2 or better and hookup with Ancient Rome in exotics. If Nations Pride is underlaid in the win pool, then I'll hope Ancient Rome is the right price, bet him to win and underneath Nations Pride in an exacta.