Midland: Let's hit the first coast-to-coast Pick 5 of 2023
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The Pick 5 is unquestionably my favorite bet, and now 1/ST has given us a low, 15 percent takeout for the coast-to-coast Pick 5 at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita every weekend for the next few months. What's not to like?
Note that this Pick 5 has a $1 minimum, which will make things extra tough to hit but should fuel some large payouts.
Gulfstream race 9, Saturday, 4:10 p.m. EST
The wager includes two races on the new Gulfstream turf course, so let's take a look at how the turf routes are playing. If you want to pull this data yourself, you can use Horse Racing Nation's Track Trends Tool, which is free.
In this first leg, No. 3 Cairo Consort (7-5) looks dominant coming out of a third-place finish behind Meditate in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, but there is a lot of speed signed on here, so we'll also want to include some closers.
No. 6 Anna Karenine (3-1) is an obvious choice to include as an overseas shipper trained by Chad Brown making her first North American start. We'll also include No. 7 Navy Goat (8-1), who broke her maiden over the Kentucky Downs turf and took a Florida-bred stakes over the Gulfstream Tapeta surface last time out. She's by new sire Army Mule, who has won with 2 of 6 turf routers as of this writing.
Santa Anita race 4, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST
A field of 10 down the Santa Anita hillside course is another tough handicapping puzzle. There's also not much speed signed on in this race, so we'll look to the frontrunners with No. 3 Thorne House (5-2) and No. 10 Moose Mitchell (4-1).
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That being said, the one we really like is No. 5 Fore Flag (5-1). This 4-year-old gelding by the Australian stallion Astern has run well on the grass but only sports a 12: 1-4-4 record in turf routes. He's only sprinted on the turf once and ran into some trouble, but Astern offspring excel in grass sprints. They win at 17.7 percent with an HRN Impact number of plus 57 percent, meaning they win about 50 percent more than their odds would indicate. Look for a big improvement in the turn back.
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Here's a screenshot of No. 5 Fore Flag, by Astern, with Astern's stats from the
HRN Sire Moves report. It flagged this horse, because his sire stats jump from 11 percent winners in turf routes to 18 percent winners in turf sprints. I've found the Sire Moves report to be invaluable for synthetic and turf racing when horses are trying new surfaces for the first time.
Gulfstream race 11, Saturday, 5:09 p.m. EST
Wow, this 12-horse maiden turf race is not making things easy for us. Luckily, the 3-1 favorite No. 9 Hardy Choice is a solid play in here. He comes off a nice closing second 28 days ago over the Gulfstream turf, and I love the running-line notes from a troubled trip that started from post 9 of 10 last time: "Awkward start, 2wd turns, 8wd 3/16, ducked out 1/8 and surged.".
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Other contenders we'll want to look at include No. 6 Moon Cat (4-1), first-timer No. 2 Justin's Legacy (15-1) and No. 12 Jamestown (10-1).
Trained by Christopher Davis and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., Moon Cat ran fourth in a tough, off-the-turf, synthetic race 14 days ago. Look for Irad to get improved position, and we'll see if he can finish well enough to win.
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Santa Anita race 6, Saturday, 5:30 p.m. EST
The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint Stakes is another hillside turf event without much speed in it. We'll focus on speed and presser types including No. 3 Alice Marble (5-2), No. 5 Eddie's New Dream (7-2) and No. 2 La Deuxieme Etoile (6-1).
Santa Anita race 8, Saturday, 6:30 p.m. EST
The California Cup Oaks features a contentious field of eight newly turned three-year-old fillies. We're going to focus on turf form here with No. 3 Grazed My Heart (4-1), No. 8 Sell the Dream (2-1) and No. 1 Carole Lombard (8-1) as our key players.
Putting it all together
It's a tough wager to construct for a $1 base, so here is how we would structure it with A-B tickets:
GP 9: 3, 6, 7
SA 4: 3, 5, 10
GP 11: 6, 9 with 2, 12 as Bs
SA 6: 3, 5 with 2 as a B
SA 8: 3, 8 with 1 as a B
That total ticket costs $306, so it's not easy and may be something to split with a friend. Also, I recognize that's not too many B horses, but this is a structure you can build from and also adjust if there are scratches.
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