Midland: How to play Saratoga's Pick 6 carryover

Saratoga has a carryover of $161,541 for Wednesday's card, which looks to be a challenging sequence. 

I was lucky enough to hit the $87,000 Pick Six payoff on Aug. 13, and that article details some of the strategies that I employed. We'll see if we can get lucky again today. 

Complicating matters is that rain is forecasted for this afternoon.  As of Wednesday morning, it looks like rain could arrive around 3pm EDT, near the start of the Pick Six. 

Here is a screenshot of this afternoon's radar forecast from the Weather Channel. 

Looking at the previous Pick Six carryovers at Saratoga, they generated significant pools: 

Looking at the specific races, there are some very difficult races, and others that are a little easier to narrow down.  

Before diving into a sequence, I always reference the HRN Pace Report, which is available as part of the new HRN Pro Reports.  The pace report helps identify races that might end up extremely fast or slow and potentially create challenging results. 

As indicated below, races 7 and 9 are highlighted in orange for potential of a hot pace.  Race 6 also is highlighted in blue for an extremely slow pace.  These are races we'll want to keep this in mind for as we're handicapping.  For more on the Pace report and how to read it, you can go to the HRN Pro Reports page. 

Race 5 

The No. 2, Speed Effect looks to be the only speed in the race, but the only question is whether he wants to go this far.  Also note with the scratch of No. 3 Breaking Stones, there is even less pace potential which would drop the pace report score further. 

It would be tempting to single the No. 2, but I'm also interested in No. 7 Johnnypump, who made a big move in his last to get to the front at the top of the stretch.  It was a winning move by jockey Luis Saez, who is aboard again today.  It was a big move that left him tired in the stretch, so I think the speed figure could have been higher.  

"A" horses - 2, 7 

"B" horses - 5

Race 6 

This is an extremely weak field of $25,000 NY-bred maiden claimers.  Because of so many other tough races, we'll try to go shallower in here.  The No. 6 Big Little Risk (3-1 ML) is a must use for me as the likely pacesetter, but No. 9 Freudian Fate looks best.  He hasn't raced on a fast dirt track in his last three starts, but prior to that he ran four races in a row that are good enough to win here.  If I were to go extremely deep, I'm tempted to use No. 10 Crossing Verazanno, who broke poorly in the slop and closed well.  

A horses - 9, 6 

B horses - possibly 10 

Race 7 

As mentioned above, this is a race that the pace report identified as having potential for a hot pace.  Digging in further, part of that pace potential is coming from No. 8, She's Not Bluffing, who is mostly a dirt horse and may or may not go to the front on turf.  So if the No. 8 does not go, there could be less pace in the race.   The No. 13 draws into the race and could show speed as well, so that may balance things out. 

To me, this was one of the toughest races in the sequence and this is where the Pick Six can really pay.  There are several contenders that fit here, but also a few horses just behind them that can win too.   For me, the 1 and 5 are coming off good races and very logical.  And the 12 and 13 fit as well, and many people will use the 10 coming out of stakes company.  

The outside posts are concerning, but the HRN Post Position Bias report (which goes back several years) shows healthy win percentages from the outside, so it's worth taking a shot with the 13 and 12. 

A horses - 1,5,13,12

B horses - consider 10,11, even the 2 isn't impossible

Race 8 

This is a tough race which could end up separating a lot of tickets.  The No. 6, Vindictive, is a Todd Pletcher maiden winner that is 9-5 on the ML, and No. 3 Runnin' Ray is 2-1 on the early line.  While both horses are must-use, I would also include No. 5 Business Model, who comes off two good races with slow paces which hurt his chances to close.  

A horses - 3,5,6 

B horses - look at 1/1A, 7 

Race 9 

Shug McGaughey has a strong favorite here in No. 1 Limited Liability, who is listed as 7-5 on the morning line.  It's also worth noting that Shug debuted 2-year-old turf route winners on July 31 (Limited Liability) and on Aug. 7 (Dripping Gold).  So in theory, he had two strong turf first-time starters, and he started Limited Liability first, which gave him more time coming back into this stake.  Additionally, he could have entered both here but only enters Limited Liability, who got the better speed figure winning a tougher version of the race. 

It is tempting to single the No. 1, and if you are going to single in the Pick Six, this would be my recommendation.  If playing deeper, include Chad Brown's No. 4 Portfolio Company as well.  

A horses - 1 

B horses - 4 

Race 10 

Hopefully, the weather cooperates and this race can stay on the turf.  That's the big question at this point. 

If it does, look for the No. 12 Lady Thornhill to push to the front and run a game race.  She ran very well in her first time on the turf in April, and now comes back with a few months rest, some good works and big jockey improvement with Jose Ortiz up.  Look for her to push to the front and hang on a long time. 

Behind her, No. 9 Vivizano also ran a nice race in her only turf start.  Look for her to sit behind the No. 1 and try to finish at the end.  Also, No. 1 Acushla fits her as a closer and adds blinkers for this try. 

A horses - 12, 9 

B horses - 1, 5 

Extreme longshot - No. 3

Good luck everyone as you play this fun and challenging sequence.  Remember, don't play too much or split with some friends! 

Here is more information on the pace report and all the HRN Pro reports and a quick video overview below.