Midland: How to play Del Mar's $700K mandatory payout
Del Mar has a $694,803 carryover in the 20-cent pick six, with a mandatory payout scheduled for today. It is a tough sequence with deep fields and a pair of 2-year-old stakes.
Since I don't regularly focus on Del Mar, I have enlisted help from the Super Screener's Mike Shutty and Horse Racing Nation handicapper Jarrod Horak to help with the sequence.
You can find detailed analysis for every race on Jarrod Horak's West Coast report.
Shutty noted a few things about how Del Mar is playing recently:
- You need to be forwardly placed for dirt sprints, but mile dirt races play fair.
- Mid-pack closers for all turf routes.
- Inside speed for 5-furlong turf sprints, with posts 1 and 2 accounting for nearly half the wins.
- Baltas and D'Amato barns are picking it up after a slow start to the meet.
I like to rely on the HRN Pace Report to get started. The Pace Report notes a bit slower pace potential in races 5 and 6 (42, 39), with medium-high scores in races 7 and 8 (59, 60) and fast pace potential indicated in orange for the last two races (99, 69).
Click here for more on the HRN Pace Report, which is part of the HRN Pro Membership package.
This is a poor group of Ca-bred maiden claimers. Enlisting Jarrod Horak's West Coast report, he said:
No. 7 Chris Fix (3-1) ran well as my top choice in his local career debut Aug. 13. He broke slow, moved into contention, found soe traffic and ran on to just grab third. Franco is 2-for-3 with Miyadi recently, and a more professional effort might be in the cards. No. 8 Hay Juan (5-2) showed strong early speed from the outside post in his local California-bred MSW bow, but he could not keep going and weakened to fourth. He drops in for a tag and might be fitter second time out. No. 2 Mondale (6-1) had a troubled trip from the inside post in his MSW bow at Lone Star June 4. Baltas has the California-bred colt now, and he shows seven local works for this.
I'm going to also throw in No. 3 and No. 6 as long shots so we don't go out (hopefully) in this first leg.
A horses - 7, 8, 2
B horses - 3, 6
Race 6
Here is a 5-furlong turf sprint, which emphasizes speed and, as Shutty noted, places a priority on inside posts. The No. 5 Althea Gibson (7-2) is fastest in here, and if you are looking to cut down on tickets this is a horse that could be a lone "A" horse or a single, although I still would recommend using others.
Sticking with the inside theme, No. 6 6 A G Indy won his last and is second off a layoff for trainer Doug O'Neill, while No. 1 Anonymously is first off the claim for trainer Mike Maker, coming off a second in allowance company. We'll spread with a few others, hoping to stay alive here.
A horses: 5, 6, 1
B horses: 7, 11
Race 7
Bob Baffert had two in here, but he scratched No. 1 and has the favorite in No. 7 Laurel River. He is going to the lead and might not be caught.
A horses: 7, 8
B horses: 3, 4
Race 8
Jarrod Horak does a deep dive into this race in his HRN Best Bet for Monday. It is a deep 2-year-old stakes on the turf, and it is tough to find much separation here.
In summary, he is focusing on No. 3 Mogollon Rim but also considers several others: 6, 5, 1, 8.
A horses: 3, 6
B horses: 5, 1, 8
Race 9
In the Del Mar Futurity, we are going to focus on the two Bob Baffert runners in No. 5 Murray and No. 4 Pinehurst and also the Mark Casse shipper No. 1 Pappacap. Between them, they have never lost in four starts, so it is tough to separate this group and we'll use all three. Steve Asmussen also has a maiden debut winner in No. 6 American Xperiment, but we will play against that one as he won in the mud at Saratoga in a race that was originally was scheduled for the turf.
A horses: 5, 4, 1
Race 10
Closing it out, there is a bunch of speed in this one-mile starter allowance on the turf, so this race could go a couple of different ways.
More than likely, there is plenty of speed with the 2, 3 and 7 all showing speed.
We're going to focus first on the horses that can come off the pace: 9, 1, 4 and 6. If for some reason No. 7 Stone's River gets away on the lead, he might be a horse to cover as a B.
A horses: 9, 1, 6, 4
B horses: 7
It is a difficult sequence that should pay very well. We recommend using a combination of these A and B recommendations, and then splitting a ticket with a friend or two! Good luck!
For more information on the HRN Pro Reports mentioned above:
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