Midland: How to approach a sloppy Saratoga Pick 6

With a Pick 6 carryover of $145,197 and a great card lined up for Wednesday, horseplayers were hoping the rain would hold off at Saratoga, but that was not the case.

In the Pick 6 races, races 5, 6 and 8 were moved off the turf, creating several scratches and taking race 5 all the way down to a three-horse field. Races 5 and 8 were moved to seven furlongs on the main track, while Race 6 was moved to 5 1/2 furlongs on the main.

While all the scratches put a damper on the Pick 6 as it is unlikely to produce a big payoff like Friday's $87,000 Pick 6 that I was lucky to hit, this is still a fun sequence to take a look at.

In playing a muddy off track, the best recommendation is to watch the early races and see how the main track is playing. Is it favoring speed horses? Inside paths or outside? Careful watching of the early races can help you to add or toss a key horse later in the sequence.

As far as how I am approaching this muddy sequence (while writing this before the races start), here is my plan:

Race 5

In a three-horse race in this first leg, I will not try to overthink this and will use the 2, 7 and fade the 5 horse. Hopefully that gets us through the first leg.

Race 6

What could make this race a little interesting is that both the 1 and 7 could show speed. Although it probably is more likely that the 1 gains the upper hand, if they do duel for a bit there is some opportunity to open up the race.

As a long shot, I am really interested in the 2 as an intriguing play. This 4-year-old filly has never hit the exacta in 14 starts, so the price should be good, but she ran a strong dirt figure three races back and showed a lot of pace in her last. This is the type of horse that you could throw in and really blow up an otherwise mostly formful sequence. The 8 has improved in every start for trainer George Weaver. It will probably be a tall ask to run down the front runners in the slop, but I would be more inclined to use this one as a "B" horse and not get knocked out that early.

Race 7 

In one of the two races originally carded for the dirt, there looks to be plenty of speed with the 1, 6, 7 and 8 all potentially going to the lead.  The 1 might be able to pull away from this group, but there is potential to set up for the 3 coming from off the pace. I am focusing wagers on the 1 and 3, but also give the 6 and 7 a look and even the 2 isn't impossible. Whom to play in this one really depends on how the track looks early.

Race 8 

The rain and scratches made a mess of this turf race, leaving the 1 and 2 as the most logical contenders to show pace and be around at the end. I would still consider the 6 and 11 as they are quality runners still in form.

Race 9

Finally, a turf race. At the moment, the Bolton Landing Stakes for 2-year-old fillies is still on the turf and it is a very interesting race. What caught my attention was all the speed in the race: 2, 5, 6, 8 and 9 all have potential to show speed. If a bunch of them go, this race could really heat up and set up for a pace presser or closer.

I really like the chances of No. 3 Derrynane, who closed strongly in her debut while still giving the feeling that she had more left. She can get the same trip today and with further improvement she could be very tough – even though her speed figures are a tad lighter than a couple others.

Another filly with potential to close is No. 7 Kneesnhips. Although her speed figures are much lower than several in here, I would encourage you to watch the replay of her maiden win at Ellis Park. She didn't get a clean trip and had to wait and wait to make her run, but when she did she rushed past the field in no time. It's a bit of a price play, but this is another long shot that could spice up the payoff and I would hate not to have her if she wins.

As for the others, I would look first at No. 9 Chi Town Lady from Wesley Ward. She has been training well and he's been training her to come from behind, so there is a chance she drops in behind the speed and makes a strong run. Also, the other Ward horse, No. 5 Poppy Flower, ran a great race in her last so I would use her as a backup.

Race 10 

If you get this far, then good luck and hopefully the payoff is interesting.  The No. 1 Clear Humor has the look of a single for many in here, but I'm looking at a couple of "B" horses with the 3 and 4. In particular, the No. 4 Capt' Remington made a huge move in the slop last time and is working well for this. Trainer Michael Miceli steps him up in class, a move that has worked well for him in the past.