Midland: The Coast-To-Coast Pick 5 is paying well

1/ST Racing debuted the new $1 Coast-To-Coast Pick 5 on January 7, featuring races from Gulfstream and Santa Anita every Saturday and Sunday with a player-friendly 15 percent takeout. The new wager has gotten off to a good start, averaging over $264,000 per pool. The highest pool was the kickoff on January 7th, but on Holy Bull Saturday last week the wager handled nearly $370,000. 

I have played several of the Coast-To-Coast wagers, but one thing I have noticed along with a few friends is that the payoffs have been very good so far.

What caught my attention in particular were the will-pays on Holy Bull Saturday. Through four races, the winners were 2-1, 10-1, 2-1 and 5-2.  So a very chalky sequence in three of the four races. I was alive to the No. 6, No. 8 and No. 9 in the last leg and wasn't expecting much in terms of payout potential. However, upon seeing the will-pays, a few of us that were alive to the No. 6 were very pleasantly surprised. In the last leg, the Grade 3 Thunder Road stakes from Santa Anita, my horses were 15-1 ML (No. 6), 3-1 ML (No. 8) and 5-1 ML (No. 9) for payouts of $39,000, $3,300 and $7,400.

Will-pays on Holy Bull Saturday after four races at 2-1, 10-1, 2-1 and 5-2

And while I didn't win this time, as the No. 1 (5-1 ML) won paying nearly $7,000, it wasn't without excitement as the No. 6 finished a fast-closing fourth, only a nose, neck and half-length behind at the wire. 

But these payoffs raised the question, how have the payouts been each week. With a little research, here are the Coast-to-Coast pools, payouts and value vs. the parlay through eight wagers: 

What stands out is that through eight wagers, the Coast-To-Coast Pick 5 is averaging 270 percent of the parlay. And while the parlay isn't a great barometer – as nobody really parlays five win bets, which results in win takeout five times – a better barometer is the expected parlay, which factors in that the Pick 5 has only one takeout as compared to parlaying five win bets. In other words, the expected parlay is what a typical Pick 5 should pay compared to a win parlay, about double. But so far, the Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 is averaging 2.7 times the parlay, pretty good. 

While it is still early after only eight pools, it does beg the question - is there a reason for the strong payouts? Looking at the wager itself, the two most obvious different features are that it's a national wager, and the $1 minimum. It's possible that one or both of these features are helping the payouts. A third option could be that the combination of two tracks is resulting in fewer players, or computer players, that are highly successful at one track or another. 

I consulted my colleague Ed DeRosa at Horse Racing Nation, who offered that the 15 percent takeout, $1 minimum, quality races and broad distribution make it one of the best values in racing. 

Personally, I think national wagers like the Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 are great for players and can create good payouts as they may be attracting a larger group of players playing for smaller amounts. This can create smaller payouts for very chalky sequences, but as long as there are a couple prices paying $10 or more, that seems to be enough to push the payoffs into a good range. 

With that in mind, I'm also excited to see the return of the Cross-Country Pick 5, which has been on hiatus since August. NYRA will offer the Cross-Country Pick 5 every Saturday, also with a 15 percent takeout, but at a 50-cent minimum.

As far as what is a better minimum stake, 50 cents or $1? That's a difficult answer as it depends on player preference, bankroll and the difficult of the sequence. But so far the $1 minimum seems to be working well for the Coast-to-Coast Pick 5. 

Below is the full list of Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 pools, payouts and race-by-race winners.