4 races, 4 superfecta plays Monday at Lone Star Park

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that it probable-payout pool is not displayed, making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available.

However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over-bet in the pool. When outsiders come in, especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result. 

This is why a 10-cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager.

Click here for Lone Star Park entries and results.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key vs. box your selections.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there, and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key requires you to ensure your keyed horse finishes in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

* Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

* The ability to confidently key a horse who is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

* A field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool who would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four, randomly.

RELATED: Mark Midland plays late Monday Pick 3 at Lone Star.

The Monday card at Lone Star provides four opportunities on dirt and turf.

Race 5

This one mile on the turf claiming race for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, attracted a field of 10 runners, including nine fillies aged 3 and 4 and one 5-year-old mare. Eight runners had last outs at Lone Star, including six on turf and two on dirt. The two remaining entries exited dirt events from Sam Houston and Delta Downs with the latter runner coming in off a layoff. Runners have combined for an in-the-money rate of 30 percent overall and a similar rate at the distance. There is not a significant amount of speed with the field combining for a lead at the second call in 1 of 8 starts for races that show. I anticipate a moderate to slow pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.

No. 3 Austin City Girl has a balanced grinding running style and has three top-four finishes in five lifetime turf starts and five top-five finishes in nine starts overall. She is going to pass horses, and it simply a question of how many down the stretch. At 8-1 she is your key runner and a solid superfecta player.

No. 1 Wyome has tactical speed and is coming off a maiden win at Lone Star, where she wired the field on turf at 7 1/2 furlongs. Prior to that effort she was a middle-of-the-pack runner on turf at Sam Houston in her first two starts as a 4-year-old. She should be forwardly placed early. The question is simply how long she can hang on at odds of 10-1?

No. 9 Basic, for solid trainer Greg Green, has run nearly as fast as the better runners in this field and has not demonstrated speed out of the gate. But she is going to be closing and fits the profile of an in-the-money, grinding along runner at this level with solid odds of 6-1.

High-percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro has the off-the-layoff last time out on dirt shipper No. 10 Erin’s Creation, who raced poorly her last two starts at Delta Downs on dirt coming off marginal turf efforts at Canterbury. Prior to those outings she ran solidly at Lone Star last year with a first and fourth on turf coming from mid-pack in both. Expect her to return with a solid effort here as one of the shorter-priced runners.

Steve Asmussen sends out the runner with the fewest starts in the field in No. 8 Luck is Fickle, who has run some of the faster times in her limited career and has to be included as a runner who has the most upside potential in this low-level claiming race.

The Play

10-cent superfecta: Key No. 3 with Nos. 1, 8, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 9

The Speightstown Sprint Stakes, a six furlong event on dirt for 3-year-olds and up, attracted a field of nine, aged 4-7, including two runners each trained by Steve Asmussen and Terry Eoff. All runners exit dirt events, including four with last-outs at Lone Star, two at Oaklawn and one each at Sam Houston, Keeneland and Mountaineer. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two of every three starts overall and at the distance. There is a moderate amount of speed with runners combining for a lead at the second call one in six tries for races that show. I anticipate a solid pace with the advantage to runners just off the pace.

Solid trainer Shawn Davis sends out No. 6 It Makes Sense, who has finished in the top three in eight of his last 10 tries. He is a mid-pack runner as a 7-year-old gelding who has not regressed with age. I anticipate a solid performance consistent with his last two fast races. At 5-1 he is your key horse.

No. 3 Red N Wild is one of the two runners trained by Eoff. The anticipated fast pace sets this runner up for a solid stretch run with nine top-four finishes in his last 10 starts. At 20-1 he is well worth including as part of the superfecta.

No. 2 Empire of Gold is the other runner trained by Eoff, and he looks like the speed in the race who will take them as far as he can. I anticipate he will clear the field early and is dangerous lasting for a share at odds of 6-1.

No. 7 Mr Money Bags is 90 percent in the money lifetime and 100 percent in 13 starts at the distance. These numbers are difficult to ignore, and he will be a shorter-priced runner. While he is not the fastest in the field, he is a tough competitor who always shows up.

No. 4 Macron, trained by Asmussen, looks very tough here. He has run as fast as anyone in the field, has a pressing running style and has not finished worse than fourth in his last 10 tries. As one of the probable, post-time favorites, he is a must-include.

The Play

10-cent superfecta: Key No. 6 with Nos. 2, 3, 4 and 7. Total wager: $9.60

Race 10

The Ouija Board Distaff Stakes, a one-mile turf event for fillies and mares 3 and up, attracted a field of nine runners, aged 4-6. Last-out tracks include five from Lone Star on turf, one from Golden Gate on turf and three on dirt at Zia Park, Santa Anita and Oaklawn. The Zia Park entry has a new trainer and is off a layoff. Runners have combined for an in-the-money rate of nearly two of every three starts overall and slightly better at the distance. There is little speed with runners combining for a lead at the second call in well under 1 of 10 for races that show. I anticipate a slow to moderate pace with the advantage to horses on or near the lead.

High-percentage trainer Karl Broberg sends out No. 6 Island Hideaway, who has finished in the top four in eight of his last 10 tries and is also in the money 5 of 6 tries at the distance. He is a near-the-lead runner who looks every part of a classic superfecta grinder. At odds of 8-1 she is your key horse.

No. 3 Brandons Babe is noticeably slower than most entries but has been in the money over three in four tries and 12 of 13 starts at the distance. Of note is her propensity to finish third, doing this nearly 50 percent of her starts. Her inclusion is based upon those numbers coupled with her odds of 20-1.

No. 8 Quinn Ella has a formidable record at the distance with six wins in 10 tries along with two second-place finishes. She runs the same race virtually every start with a mid-pack pressing style and has been in the money nine of her last 10 starts. This mare is hard to ignore at odds of 8-1.

California-based trainer Leonard Powell sends out No. 7 Avenue de France, who is faster than most runners in the field. She has met the toughest competition, including her participation in graded and ungraded stakes eight of her last 10 starts with six top-four finishes in those eight tries. She is the likely second choice, will be closing and may run out of ground down the stretch.

No. 9 Park Avenue, trained by another Californian – John Sadler – is likely the leader out of the gate and the likely betting favorite. She should clear the field early. If unchallenged she will be tough to beat. Her lone turf run was a wire-to-wire victory in a longer race, and she is also able to close if someone else beats her out of the gate.

The Play

10-cent superfecta: Key No. 6 with Nos. 3, 7, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 12

The Steve Sexton Mile Stakes (G3), a one-mile dirt event, attracted a field of 10, including four 4-year-old colts and six older runners aged 5-9. Eight runners exit dirt events, including two each from Oaklawn, Santa Anita and Lone Star and one each from Sun Ray and Gulfstream. The final two entries exit turf races from Golden Gate and Lone Star. Two runners have new trainers, including one via a claim. One of the Santa Anita dirt runners is stretching out to a route of ground for the first time. The field has combined for an overall in-the-money rate well over half the time and two of every three starts at the distance. There is a solid amount of speed with runners combining for a lead at the second call one of every five tries for races that show. I anticipate a fast pace with the advantage to mid-pack runners and closers.

No. 1 Rated R Superstar is a hard hitting, 9-year-old gelding who always shows up and grinds his way to a strong finish. In recent efforts he has demonstrated a closer-to-the-pace style partly attributable to facing smaller fields. He has seven top-three finishes in his last 10 starts and is very tractable. Expect him to be part of the mix in the end at odds of 10-1 as your key runner.

No. 9 Flash of Mischief, trained by Broberg, has finished in the top four in 10 consecutive starts at distances ranging from six to nine furlongs at seven different tracks. He is one of those runners who always shows up and does not need the lead, but he may be very close. I anticipate him hanging around for a share at odds of 12-1.

No. 4 Sheriff Brown is the only true deep closer in the field, and he has 12 top-three finishes in 14 tries at the distance. Expect him to lag behind the field and make one sustained run. If the pace is really too hot, he will be visually impressive down the stretch passing a lot of horses. He is worth including at odds of 12-1.

Sadler ships in No. 5 Elector, who is trying a route of ground for the first time and projects to be as fast as any of his competitors. He is going to take a lot of money as one of the post-time favorites.

Trainer Sean McCarthy sends the probable favorite in No. 8 Shaaz, who is simply too fast to ignore. While I anticipate a speed duel up front, he should not be part of it laying just off the speed in only his fourth start. He has two wins in three tries along with a second-place finish, wiring the field at a mile in one of those wins.

The Play

10-cent superfecta: Key No. 1 with Nos. 4, 5, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.