Met Mile odds and analysis: Who can challenge Knicks Go?
Even though the Grade 1, $1 million Metropolitan at Belmont Park on Saturday showcases only a six-horse field, it is a quality group worthy of the Grade 1 label.
The big question is whether Knicks Go runs back to his speed figures before the trip to Saudi Arabia, or does he need one race to get back into the flow?
Final thoughts on Knicks Go and the other five entries are below.
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The Met Mile is carded as Race 9 with a post time of 4:42 EDT.
1. Mischevious Alex, 5-2 (Into Mischief – Saffie Joseph Jr./Irad Ortiz Jr. – 12: 7-1-1 - $614,730). He closed for a 5 1/2-length win in the Carter Handicap (G1) in an easy manner after the uncontested pacesetter Chateau gave up in the stretch. In fact, all three of Mischevious Alex’s races under trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. were wins by more than three lengths. He shows a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the winning Carter effort, which is a bit light in comparison with Knicks Go’s usual figure in the 130 range. But that opponent returns from a losing effort in the Saudi Cup. Another concern is the longer one-mile distance, although he is the 2020 Gotham Stakes (G3) winner. Putting away Chateau is different from putting away Knicks Go, Dr Post and more. He deserves respect, but this is a difficult Grade 1 race. Use underneath.
2. Dr Post, 9-2 (Quality Road – Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez – 7: 3-1-1 - $480,635). From visual standpoint, Dr Post did not look impressive in his local Westchester Stakes (G3) win. He took the race by only 1 1/2 lengths over Wicked Trick after working hard in the stretch drive to put away the popular Mr. Buff. Dr Post still earned a career high 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the Westchester, and most horses improve in their second start off the bench. Assuming Dr Post takes the normal progression, he could rise up to a TimeformUS figure around the 125+ range, while Knicks Go might need one race off the trip to Saudi Arabia and the layoff to perform his best race. Last year, Dr Post showed promise with a second-place finish in the Belmont Stakes, third in the Haskell Stakes (G1) and fourth in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) before going on the shelf. With misfires from the other horses, it is not hard to see Dr Post winning. Win contender.
3. Silver State, 7-2 (Hard Spun – Steven Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 10: 6-2-1 - $1,230,094). When Silver State won the recent Oaklawn Handicap (G2), he earned a career high 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Silver State posted that number in his third start of the season after small-margin victories in the Fifth Season Stakes and Essex Handicap. He took the Oaklawn Handicap by only half a length over Fearless as well, with Express Train another length back in third. Fearless went on to finish a disappointing third in the Pimlico Special (G3), while Express Train also was disappointing in his third-place finish in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) a few days ago. Silver State also received a perfect trip in the Oaklawn Handicap by saving ground and tipping out at the right moment. Given the losing efforts of Fearless and Express Train next time and Silver State’s beautiful trip when barely defeating them, it makes sense to look elsewhere for the winner. With that said, he is good enough to hit the bottom slots of the trifecta. Use underneath.
4. Lexitonian, 20-1 (Speightstown – Jack Sisterson/Tyler Gaffalione – 17: 4-2-2 - $465,182). This one closed in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) to lose by only a head to Flagstaff. The Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion Whitmore finished a nose behind Lexitonian in third. With all due respect to Flagstaff and Whitmore, these are different types of horses in the Met Mile even if the Churchill Downs Stakes is also a Grade 1 race. Lexitonian appears overmatched against this group. Toss.
5. By My Standards, 10-1 (Goldencents – Bret Calhoun/Gabriel Saez – 15: 7-4-1 - $2,069,430). This runner mowed down the leader Rushie in the Oaklawn Mile Stakes to win by a nose with a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The effort is better than the speed figure indicates, as By My Standards endured a wide trip on both turns. Rushie had the jump on By My Standards at the top of the stretch, but By My Standards closed the gap anyway to clearly give the impression of the best horse. Last year, By My Standards ran mostly at longer distances and won races such as the New Orleans Classic (G2), Oaklawn Handicap and Alysheba Stakes (G2). His 10-1 morning-line odds might come as a surprise given his overall quality. Then again, not every horse can fit mathematically in single digits when creating horse odds. If he does remain around 8-1 to 10-1, then move him up based on value. Live long-shot.
6. Knicks Go, 6-5 (Paynter – Brad Cox/Joel Rosario – 19: 6-3-1 - $4,588,995). His fade in the Saudi Cup is forgivable. Consider how Knicks Go needed to deal with Charlatan in the early stages. Rather than tackle Charlatan head on immediately, Knicks Go briefly let Charlatan set the pace before challenging him on the turn. Knicks Go then led for a few moments before Charlatan took the lead back again and put away Knicks Go by the straightaway. Great Scot passed Knicks Go late for third, but that is not a huge deal given Knicks Go had lost the big prize already and Joel Rosario likely did not persevere. Before the Saudi Cup, Knicks Go built a four-race win streak under trainer Brad Cox. Those victories include the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup (G1), with his career high 133 on TimeformUS coming in the Pegasus effort. If Knicks Go is ready off the Saudi trip, he is supposed to win. The pick.
Conclusion
On paper, Knicks Go is too fast to lose. The only question is whether the Saudi trip took something out of him, but Cox gave this horse three months before this race.
The play is a trifecta wheel with Knicks Go keyed on top. Dr Post and By My Standards are useful in the bottoms slots, with a win bet on Knicks Go to hedge.
In multi-race wagers, Dr Post is usable alongside Knicks Go. If there is room for By My Standards, he is a B or C candidate for those using the A-B-C-X method.