Met Mile fair odds: Play the weight break vs. the champions

The Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap on the Belmont Stakes undercard Saturday at Saratoga is being billed as a showdown between champions Fierceness and White Abarrio.

And no wonder. Fierceness is the 2023 champion 2-year-old male and three-time Grade 1 winner. White Abarrio is the 2023 horse of the year and four-time Grade 1 winner. Both are undefeated this year, with Fierceness winning the Alysheba (G2) in his 4-year-old debut five weeks ago at Churchill Downs and White Abarrio the Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner who followed that a five-length victory at 1-20 in the Ghostzapper (G3) 10 weeks ago at Gulfstream Park.

The former drew the rail in the five-horse Met Mile and is the even-money favorite on the morning line. The latter is in post 2 and is the 9-5 second choice. Most germane to my strategy for betting this race, though, is that Fierceness totes 125 pounds and White Abarrio is the 126-pound highweight.

They are obviously the horses to beat in here, but giving 6-7 pounds to Just a Touch is enough to make me favor the 4-1 third choice. On paper, Just a Touch's resume does not come close to stacking up. He never has won a stakes, he finished last in the Kentucky Derby and he has yet to run in a stakes as a 4-year-old.

But that's why we're getting weight and the projected price. And I'll take it.

Just a Touch has looked super impressive in both his starts this year, winning allowance races at Fair Grounds and Keeneland by a combined 17 lengths in fast times. He will have to improve to running a lifetime best here, but third off the layoff and getting weight puts a win within range.

As for Fierceness vs. White Abarrio, I definitely prefer the former. White Abarrio's mile races at this level leave a lot to be desired given he is highweight here. Raging Torrent is not impossible, of course, but will be bet similarly to Just a Touch, and I just prefer that one.

My plan is to bet Just a Touch to win and underneath Fierceness in a cold exacta.