Met Mile odds and analysis: Fierceness vs. White Abarrio

Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Metropolitan Handicap drew a field of five older dirt males. Once again in 2025 the Belmont Stakes racing festival will be run at Saratoga as Belmont Park is being renovated. The one-mile handicap will start from the Wilson chute. In addition to purse money, the winner gets an entry in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in November at Del Mar.

The small field in the Met Mile is led by three Grade 1 winners in Fierceness, White Abarrio and Raging Torrent. Between them they have 22 wins and earnings of $12.5 million. The long shot Castle Chaos is the only horse in the field who did not have a victory in his most recent start.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Met Mile with the official track morning-line odds. It is scheduled as race 8 of 14 with post time set for 3:17 p.m. EDT.

1. Fierceness, 1-1. City of Light – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez– 10: 6-1-1 - $4,315,320. Fierceness is undefeated at Saratoga with an 11-length maiden score at first asking, then the Jim Dandy (G2) and the Travers (G1) where he bested Thorpedo Anna and Sierra Leone. He pressed the pace to finish second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic to finish his 3-year-old campaign. He returned to the races this year to set a track record when he won the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill. Todd Pletcher won the Met Mile twice, most recently in 2014 with Fierceness's regular rider John Velazquez. Johnny V. won the Met Mile five times from 1996 to 2014. Top choice.

2. White Abarrio, 9-5. Race Day – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 21: 10-2-3 - $6,971,920. White Abarrio won his last two starts at Gulfstream in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and then the Ghostzapper (G3) in March. He won races at distances from seven furlongs to 10 furlongs but has not done well in one-turn miles. White Abarrio was third and fifth in the last two runnings of the Met Mile (G1) and was second in the Cigar Mile (G2). Win contender.

3. Castle Chaos, 20-1. Palace Malice – Robert Falcone Jr. / Flavien Prat – 22: 3-6-5 - $476,277. Castle Chaos did not win a race in the last two years while running in stakes and allowance races. He was fourth in the 2024 Met Mile. Castle Chaos was a $7,500 supplemental nomination to the Met Mile. Flavien Prat won the Met Mile last year with National Treasure and in 2022 with Flightline. Toss.

4. Just a Touch, 4-1. Justify – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 7: 3-3-0 - $440,778. Just a Touch won a pair of allowance races by more than 17 lengths at Fair Grounds then at Keeneland after an eight-month layoff. Last year he was second in the Gotham (G3) and the Blue Grass (G1) on the Kentucky Derby trail. He earned enough points to get in the run for the roses but finished last in the 20-horse field. Trifecta finish possible.

5. Raging Torrent, 5-1. Maximus Mischief – Doug O’Neill / Frankie Dettori – 13: 6-1-2 - $1,247,400. Raging Torrent won three stakes races last year with front-end efforts in the Maxfield at Churchill, then the Pat O’Brien (G2) at Del Mar and the Malibu (G1) at Santa Anita. He was seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He travelled to Dubai in April of this year to win the Godolphin Mile (G1). Win contender.

Summary: Although four of the horses in the field have won races after setting the early pace, the pace projector does not show a particularly fast pace. Since the 2024 Kentucky Derby when Fierceness finished in 15th place, the son of City of Light won the Jim Dandy, the Travers and the Alysheba. His only loss was behind Sierra Leone in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Fierceness trained in Florida for his 2025 debut in the Alysheba. He stalked the pace, took control of the race mid-stretch and won by more than a length while setting the track record. As a 4-year-old he continued to perform at the highest level and should cement his place as the best older horse in America with another victory at Saratoga. Fierceness is the top choice to win the Met Mile.