Meadowlands Pace fair odds: Confederate gets set-up

The 2023 Meadowlands Pace shapes to potentially be among the more competitive renewals of The Meadowlands Racetrack's marquee event for 3-year-old pacers.

I say "potentially" entirely because the race hinges on a single horse: Confederate.

Qualitatively speaking, Confederate is one of the best horses if not the best horse in the race. Watching his replays, the Brett Pelling trainee has an instant acceleration that can reach a ridiculous speed. He’s arguably the fastest horse in the race and capitalized off a chaotic setup to win his elimination mostly under wraps in 1:47.3.

But his biggest obstacle comes from his preference to race from off the pace. In the North America Cup, driver Tim Tetrick waited to make his move with the 7-5 favorite but got rolling late, resulting in a head difference between him and the winner Its My Show. His off-the-speed tactics also put him in a precarious spot in last year’s Breeders Crown, in which Ammo pulled a 50-1 upset.

"(Confederate is) just a good drive away from everybody being happy," Tetrick said after Confederate won his Pace elimination.

Tim is right. So with those traffic woes in mind together with the driver learning more about Confederate, I estimate the Pace favorite wins this race more than half the time. Another factor that aids Confederate greatly is the pace forecast. To his inside, Christchurch picks up Yannick Gingras in the bike. For those unfamiliar, Christchurch is not only not the capital of New Zealand but also a speed freak. When he gets rolling, he's difficult to hold back, so after clocking a 52.1-second front half in his elimination.

The possibility of an absurd tempo exists because what does Ammo do in this race? What does Ammo, who can uncork a 25-second first quarter and who showed speed in the North America Cup before taking back, do in this race? With a lack of early gate speed to his inside, Ammo is firing down the pace barrel.

So, not only is Ammo a plausible pace factor, who may try to secure something like a pocket trip by leaving the gate, but also Fulton is a huge question mark. The pylon post is the worst spot he could have drawn, since the speed to his outside most likely means he either has to pull first over or decide that he’ll just sit and pray.

Dexter Dunn has some difficult decisions to make on Fulton. At the same time, if the pace of this race hinges largely on two horses (sans someone else in this field making a bold move), that could also work into the hands of Christchurch. Remember, Christchurch went a 52.1-second front half and still finished third, beaten only a length. He was clearly fatigued from the race, but that’s a massive mile.

So the above fair odds account for this race to have a taxing early tempo to aid the horses that have flexed strong speed in their recent starts. That speed setup also would benefit a horse like El Rey, who showed tons of grit when having to stop and start and stop and start in his bid to grab second in his elimination. Plus he’s shown an affinity for the racetrack when blasting a 25.4-second final quarter to win the Governor’s Cup final here in November. He’s regained his groove with the addition of Lasix, but appears the wise guy horse as a result.

Voukefalas has some quirks to iron I think. He’s as fast in a final quarter as some of the best in here like Confederate and El Rey, but he’s been showing some gait issues dating back to his North America Cup elimination, where he broke into the first turn. Even in his Pace elimination, he threw a hop in his stride here or there and to driver Jordan Stratton’s credit he kept him held together. But coming out of the weaker of the two Pace eliminations and ultimately finishing an even second in his first start back, I’m demanding a bit of a higher price on him because he certainly has the ability to beat this group, but he also seems like he was much sharper earlier in the season, coincidentally when the racing was slower, too.

Elimination winner Cannibal is a difficult proposition given the scope of the field. He’s the new guy on the block with no evident ceiling. With each start, he’s performed better and stepped up to the plate. But I’m not sure, with the depth of talent this field has, he’s a terrific bet off a perfect-trip victory in his elimination. I fade him in this race because there are others much better at coming off the speed than him, and he would need to either show incredible improvement in the final or get a picture-perfect drive from Andy McCarthy along with a perfect setup. Too much feels necessary to go into place.

Aside from Christchurch, the one outsider of the field who grabbed my attention is Hungry Angel Boy. He surprised me in the North America Cup eliminations, finishing third while chasing Confederate’s 1:48.4 mile. He then went an even race in the Cup consolation behind Stockade Seelster and has returned from that Canadian stint showing some extra life. While he was fourth in his elimination, he was able to hit his high gear fairly quickly while the horse well outside of him Its A Me Mario took awhile to hit his best stride at the center. The turn of foot caught my eye, and Yannick appeared settled that he was getting fourth in the last sixteenth. A lot would have to go his way, but Hungry Angel Boy appears to have the right tools to maybe pull a spoiler if the pieces fall into place and will absolutely be the right price to try for a couple of dollars.

But, for the thousand words I just churned on this Meadowlands Pace, I would laugh if Ammo just did exactly what he did in the Breeders Crown. Holborn Hanover 2.0. Good luck also to Save America from post 10 and to Matt Kakaley, who for some reason only draws post 10 in this race.